Match Info

CROATIA: PRVA NL - ROUND 27

Date: 24 April 2023, Monday


	Jarun Zagreb		Kustošija

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.2	4
	1.8	3.3	3.7
	1.79	3.7	4.14
	1.77	3.58	4.15	Watch
	1.9	3.4	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.4)	3.44 ↑ (3.05)	3.89 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jarun Zagreb
50.3%

Draw
26.4%

Kustošija
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.5%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

30.6%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jarun Zagreb has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jarun Zagreb's performance.

Kustošija has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kustošija might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jarun Zagreb than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jarun Zagreb that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kustošija than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kustošija could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Jarun Zagreb - Kustošija Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Jarun will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Kustošija will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jarun: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Jarun has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Kustošija is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Jarun will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Kustošija to win the game is with odds 3.08.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jarun won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Jarun won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jarun Zagreb
Croatian Prva NL
16.04.23	Croatia Zmijavci - Jarun Zagreb	1:0 ✺
08.04.23	Orijent - Jarun Zagreb	4:0 ✺
03.04.23	Jarun Zagreb - Rudeš	0:1 ✺
25.03.23	Vukovar 91 - Jarun Zagreb	4:1 ✺
19.03.23	Jarun Zagreb - Hrvatski Dragovoljac	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- NK Kustošija
Croatian Prva NL
14.04.23	Kustošija - Rudeš	2:1 ✺
07.04.23	Vukovar 91 - Kustošija	2:0 ✺
31.03.23	Kustošija - Cibalia	1:1 ✺
26.03.23	Solin - Kustošija	0:1 ✺
18.03.23	Bijelo Brdo - Kustošija	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian Prva NL
13.03.23	Kustošija - Jarun Zagreb	1:2
15.10.22	Jarun Zagreb - Kustošija	3:0
19.03.22	Kustošija - Jarun Zagreb	1:1
18.09.21	Jarun Zagreb - Kustošija	1:1
Club Friendly
27.01.19	Kustošija - Jarun Zagreb	5:2

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