Match Info

Virsliga - Round 34

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs (Jelgava) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Latvia	14:00	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	Jelgava		BFC Daugavpils

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.90	3.50	1.73
	4.00	3.50	1.71	Watch
	3.97	3.64	1.89
	4.43	4.2	1.65	Watch
	3.90	3.55	1.85
	3.64	3.84	1.87	Watch
	3.70	3.60	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↑ (2.69)	3.69 ↑ (3.25)	1.78 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jelgava
23.4%

Draw
24.9%

BFC Daugavpils
51.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.5%

27.7%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

28.1%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelgava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jelgava's form might have worsened.

BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting BFC Daugavpils's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jelgava, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for BFC Daugavpils, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Jelgava will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Daugavpils will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jelgava (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dvorak A. (C) 22. Pudil M. 13. Novikovs J. 4. Kangars A. 23. Dreimanis A. 27. Alekseiciks K. 29. Zaleiko G. 11. Hasek M. 8. Melkis R. 24. Hasek F. 17. Rataj T.	12. Beks J. (G) 37. Mihalcovs G. 5. Papa 20. Taty C. 34. Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 4. Mukwelle W. 11. Yakubu J. 19. Pinaskins E. 9. Traore A. 97. Kivinda D.
Substitutes
9. Becers R. 2. Bernans K. 28. Deklavs A. 7. Janovskis A. 21. Kacanovs G. 16. Leitis T. (G) 20. Patika G. 19. Petersons A. 18. Smaukstelis E.	77. Aizups R. 3. Ayebadiepreye D. 6. Barkovskis N. 66. Bujanovs K. 33. Cucurs D. 27. Kopilovs M. 58. Razumejevs V. (G) 8. Skrebels R.
Coaches
Basovs A.	Kurbatov K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 🟨,
43', Mihalcovs G. 🟨,
45+1', Mukwelle W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
78', 0 - 1, Traore A. ⚽,
81', Dreimanis A. ↓, Becers R. ↑,
87', Pudil M. ↓, Smaukstelis E. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jelgava won 0.

Jelgava is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Daugavpils has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Daugavpils for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Jelgava has recorded 4 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:23 (averaging 0.9:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jelgava against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 6 draws, and 0 losses, with 12:5 goals (averaging 1.2:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	13	9	12	40:37	3	48
7	Jelgava	34	8	8	18	34:57	-23	32

Last Results with these Odds

Jelgava - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 33.49%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FS Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga
18.10.26	Liepāja - Jelgava	3:0 ✺
11.10.26	RFS - Jelgava	4:2 ✺
19.09.26	Jelgava - Riga	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Grobiņa - Jelgava	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Jelgava - Super Nova	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Virsliga
19.10.26	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	BFC Daugavpils - RFS	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
01.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	2:1
31.05.26	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	1:1
16.04.26	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	1:0
18.10.25	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	0:0
27.07.25	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	2:0
25.05.25	BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava	1:0
10.04.25	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	4:1

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