Match Info

Date: 14 August 2022, Sunday

Location: J.J. Ugland Stadion – Levermyr (Grimstad)

Referee: Steen K. E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Discovery+


	Jerv		Lillestrøm SK

	1	X	2
	6	4.33	1.5	Watch
	6	4.4	1.49
	6.1	4.5	1.5
	5.8	4.4	1.47
	6.33	4.69	1.51
	5.5	3.9	1.5
	6.05	4.45	1.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.97 ↑ (4.67)	4.38 ↑ (3.6)	1.49 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Jerv
15.7%

Draw
21.4%

Lillestrøm SK
62.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.7%

25.5%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

25.9%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Lillestrøm SK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lillestrøm SK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lillestrøm SK than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lillestrøm SK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Jerv - Lillestrøm SK Predictions

Users Predictions: Lillestrøm SK will win (20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.42% – 98.24%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ OBOS~ligaen and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification)).

Jerv has the most likely position - 16 (49.45%), has project points - 20, has currently - 11, has a good chance of relegated (95%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lillestrøm has the most likely position - 3 (33.09%), has project points - 59, has currently - 37, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of qualify for ucl (13%), has a small chance of win league (13%).

This event has small quality 21, importance 33, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Jerv has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Lillestrøm is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Jerv could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lillestrøm is a favorite.

There will not play in Jerv: Ness T. (Injury)

There will not play in Lillestrøm: Holst F. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Lillestrøm to win the game is with odds 1.52.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Jerv won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Jerv won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jerv
Norwegian NM Cup
10.08.22	Jerv - Odd	2:3 ET ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
07.08.22	Haugesund - Jerv	3:1 ✺
30.07.22	Jerv - Vålerenga	2:5 ✺
23.07.22	Bodø Glimt - Jerv	5:0 ✺
16.07.22	Jerv - Sandefjord	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Lillestrøm SK
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.08.22	Royal Antwerp - Lillestrøm SK	2:0 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
07.08.22	Lillestrøm SK - Tromsø	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
04.08.22	Lillestrøm SK - Royal Antwerp	1:3 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
31.07.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Lillestrøm SK	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.07.22	Lillestrøm SK - SJK	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
09.04.22	Lillestrøm SK - Jerv	4:0
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
18.11.20	Lillestrøm SK - Jerv	1:0
31.07.20	Jerv - Lillestrøm SK	2:2
Club Friendly
15.06.20	Lillestrøm SK - Jerv	3:0

Upcoming Matches