Match Info

CHINA: Jia League - Round 26

Date: 6 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Ruichang Sports Park Stadium (Jiujiang)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports


	Jiangxi Lushan		Yanbian Longding

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.65
	2.35	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.46	3.35	2.82
	2.47	3.28	2.81	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.8
	2.34	3.28	2.65	Watch
	2.35	3.3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.88)	3.29 ↑ (3.15)	2.73 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jiangxi Lushan
38.8%

Draw
27.7%

Yanbian Longding
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

29%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

28.3%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jiangxi Lushan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jiangxi Lushan's performance.

Yanbian Longding has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Yanbian Longding might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jiangxi Lushan than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jiangxi Lushan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yanbian Longding than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Jiangxi Lushan - Yanbian Longding Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Chen Junxu (G) 24. Du Junpeng 36. Zhang Junzhe 14. Chen Yunhua 5. Nuer X. 11. Brown T. 17. Xu Dongdong 33. Kang Zhenjie 10. Willie 4. Zhu Mingxin 29. Fortes F.	19. Dong Jialin (G) 20. Jin Taiyan 3. Wang Peng 15. Xu Jizu 5. Li Da 14. Li L. 11. Arboleda V. 23. Wang Chengkuai 6. Li Qiang 30. Wang B. 9. Ronan
Substitutes
30. Gao Mingyi 16. Hu Jiaqi 35. Li Jiahao 34. Ma Kunyue (G) 28. Muhta Muzapar 6. Song Ziwenhao 25. Wang Hongbin 37. Wang J. 7. Wu Linfeng 8. Xie Weichao 23. Yao Zixuan 26. Zhang Xiang	40. Huang Yuxuan 39. Hu Z. 18. Khedrup Lobsang 33. Li Jinyu 12. Li Ya'nan (G) 31. Qian Changjie 32. Ren J. 16. Wang B. 2. Xuan Z. 26. Xu Wenguang 38. Zhang Aokai 25. Zhang Hao
Coaches
Yue S.	Lee Ki-Hyung

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Wang Chengkuai ⚽, Ronan (A),
14', Zhang Junzhe 🟨,
35', Wang B. ↓, Xuan Z. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dong Jialin ↓, Li Ya'nan ↑,
62', Kang Zhenjie ↓, Muhta Muzapar ↑,
63', Arboleda V. ↓, Zhang Aokai ↑,
68', Xu Dongdong 🟨,
80', Wang Chengkuai ↓, Xu Wenguang ↑,
90+2', Ronan 🟨,
90+3', Li Ya'nan 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Yi League and 11).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Jiangxi Lushan could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Jiangxi Lushan won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:5 (average 0.7:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Jiangxi Lushan won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jiangxi Lushan
Chinese Jia League
28.09.24	Dalian Young Boy - Jiangxi Lushan	3:0 ✺
22.09.24	Jiangxi Lushan - Nanjing City	2:1 ✺
16.09.24	Qingdao Red Lions - Jiangxi Lushan	1:2 ✺
07.09.24	Jiangxi Lushan - Liaoning Tieren	1:1 ✺
31.08.24	Jiangxi Lushan - Heilongjiang Ice City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 LWWTT
- Yanbian Longding
Chinese Jia League
28.09.24	Yanbian Longding - Yunnan Yukun	1:3 ✺
21.09.24	Heilongjiang Ice City - Yanbian Longding	0:1 ✺
15.09.24	Liaoning Tieren - Yanbian Longding	2:1 ✺
08.09.24	Yanbian Longding - Dalian Young Boy	2:2 ✺
01.09.24	Shijiazhuang Gongfu - Yanbian Longding	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Jia League
25.05.24	Yanbian Longding - Jiangxi Lushan	2:1
26.08.23	Yanbian Longding - Jiangxi Lushan	1:1
13.05.23	Jiangxi Lushan - Yanbian Longding	0:2

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