Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 32

Date: 31 March 2025, Monday

Location: Sportcomplex De Toekomst (Ouder-Amstel)

Referee: Hardeman T. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1


	Jong Ajax		Volendam

	1	X	2
	5	4.2	1.6	Watch
	3.75	3.9	1.75
	5	4.5	1.57	Watch
	4.81	4.28	1.6	Watch
	4	3.8	1.75
	4.97	4.17	1.59	Watch
	5	4.5	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.65 ↓ (6.05)	4.19 ↓ (4.58)	1.63 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong Ajax
20.2%

Draw
22.4%

Volendam
57.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.5%

20.4%

64.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.1%

19.9%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Volendam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Volendam might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jong Ajax that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Volendam than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Volendam could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.1%	8.7%	65.2%

Jong Ajax - Volendam Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Jong Ajax will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Volendam will win (votes: 15 - 65.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Volendam: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Reverson P. (G) 2. van de Pavert R. 3. Verschuren N. 4. Ugwu P. 5. Jetten L. 8. Johnson J. 6. Verkuijl M. 10. Steur S. 7. Faberski J. 9. Rijkhoff J. 11. Bounida R.	20. van Oevelen K. (G) 12. Payne D. 4. Mbuyamba X. 3. Amevor M. 32. Leliendal Y. 6. Plat A. 5. Anita V. 7. Ould-Chikh B. 21. Muhren R. 10. Kuwas B. 9. Veerman H.
Substitutes
20. Boerhout Y. 16. Brandes J. 15. Chahid R. 12. El Hani A. (G) 19. Kalokoh D. 17. Speksnijder R. 18. Vink S.	18. Bukala N. 23. Curiel G. 36. de Haan M. 28. Esajas S. 8. Jacobs Ja. 16. Ngom K. (G) 11. Oehlers A. 30. Samson Y. (G) 14. Steur D. 31. Wong-A-Soij K. 39. Zijlstra M.
Coaches
Peereboom F.	Kruys R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, van de Pavert R. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Johnson J. 🟨,
62', Muhren R. ↓, Jacobs Ja. ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Jacobs Ja. ⚽, Ould-Chikh B. (A),
64', Steur S. ↓, Kalokoh D. ↑,
75', Kuwas B. ↓, de Haan M. ↑,
75', Plat A. ↓, Bukala N. ↑,
81', Bounida R. ↓, Vink S. ↑,
81', Johnson J. ↓, Brandes J. ↑,
88', Veerman H. ↓, Esajas S. ↑,
88', Ould-Chikh B. ↓, Oehlers A. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jong Ajax won 0.

Jong Ajax is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Volendam is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match Volendam is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Jong Ajax won 3 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 30:44 (average 1.5:2.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Jong Ajax won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 20:21 (average 2:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.03.25	Den Bosch - Jong Ajax	3:1 ✺
11.03.25	Jong Ajax - Emmen	0:2 ✺
07.03.25	VVV-Venlo - Jong Ajax	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	Jong Ajax - FC Eindhoven	0:2 ✺
28.02.25	Jong Utrecht - Jong Ajax	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLW
- FC Volendam
Dutch Eerste Divisie
15.03.25	Volendam - Cambuur	4:1 ✺
11.03.25	Volendam - Telstar	3:0 ✺
07.03.25	FC Oss - Volendam	0:2 ✺
28.02.25	Volendam - Helmond Sport	3:1 ✺
22.02.25	VVV-Venlo - Volendam	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
25.11.24	Volendam - Jong Ajax	3:0
Club Friendly
02.08.24	Jong Ajax - Volendam	1:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.04.22	Volendam - Jong Ajax	3:1
19.11.21	Jong Ajax - Volendam	4:4
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Volendam - Jong Ajax	4:2
Dutch Eerste Divisie
23.02.21	Volendam - Jong Ajax	3:2
23.11.20	Jong Ajax - Volendam	1:1

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