The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Junior Barranquilla 33.9%
Draw 32%
Atlético Nacional 34.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
39.6%
27.9%
32.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.2%
27.5%
32.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Junior Barranquilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Junior Barranquilla's form might have worsened.
Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (+6.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Junior Barranquilla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-2%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
53.3%
20%
26.7%
Junior Barranquilla - Atlético Nacional Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Junior will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%). Confidence interval (95%) for Junior: 28.1% – 78.5%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +0.5 - Junior (1.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Junior (votes: 2 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Silveira M. (G) 34. Guerrero J. 98. Pena J. 5. Rivera D. 26. Suarez Y. 80. Angel Bernal F. S. (C) 14. Rios J. 77. Barrios C. 20. Sarmiento J. 88. Castrillon B. 10. Muriel L.
15. Castillo H. (G) 6. Roman A. 4. Haydar C. 16. Tesillo W. (C) 33. Velasquez S. 21. Campuzano J. 80. Zapata J. 18. Bello E. 19. Rengifo J. 13. Rodriguez N. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
21. Canchimbo J. 29. Gutierrez T. 3. Herrera E. 30. Martinez J. (G) 33. Monzon L. 9. Paiva G. 22. Rivas J. 38. Shmalbach A. 19. Socarras D.
17. Arango C. 10. Cardona E. 44. Catano K. (G) 7. Moreno M. 3. Parra N. 31. Rios X. 26. Rivero E. 29. Sarmiento A. 8. Uribe M.
Coaches
Arias A.
Arias D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Castrillon B. ⚽,
16', Rivera D. 🟨,
28', Rengifo J. 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Muriel L. ⚽, Guerrero J. (A),
45+6', Roman A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 3 - 0, Muriel L. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Zapata J. ↓, Arango C. ↑,
59', Rodriguez N. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
62', Guerrero J. 🟨,
69', Morelos A. 🟨,
70', Silveira M. 🟨,
77', Barrios C. ↓, Canchimbo J. ↑,
77', Sarmiento J. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
77', Bello E. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
78', Muriel L. ↓, Paiva G. ↑,
83', Arango C. 🟨,
85', Velasquez S. ↓, Parra N. ↑,
85', Rengifo J. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
86', Guerrero J. ↓, Herrera E. ↑,
86', Castrillon B. ↓, Gutierrez T. ↑,
90+6', Cardona E. 🟨,
Preview
First leg.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Junior won 3.
In recent matches, Junior has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Atlético Nacional is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Junior may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Junior won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:26. (average 1.3:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Junior won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).
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Silveira M. (G) 
Guerrero J. 
Bello E. 
Paiva G. 
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