Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Menendez A. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Ecuador	ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN


	Juventud de Las Piedras		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.3	Watch
	3.05	2.98	2.38	Watch
	3.33	3.1	2.41
	3.65	3.14	2.17
	3.1	2.9	2.38
	3.31	3.1	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (3)	3.02 ↓ (3.25)	2.35 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventud de Las Piedras
28.9%

Draw
31.1%

Independiente Medellín
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

28.6%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

27.6%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventud de Las Piedras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventud de Las Piedras than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Juventud de Las Piedras - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Juventud will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind Medellín: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Juventud (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (1.95) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Ind Medellín (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventud (votes: 1 - 25%). Ind Medellín (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sosa S. (C) 24. Barrandeguy F. 5. Morosini D. 2. Pernicone P. 23. Mas E. 22. Chagas R. 37. Peralta R. 30. Gomez G. 7. Alaniz A. 20. Sanchez R. 10. Larregui B.	1. Ichazo S. (G) 26. Mena Perea E. 24. Ortiz J. 4. Mantilla K. 23. Palacios M. 18. Fabra F. 6. Moreno D. (C) 16. Loboa H. 8. Serna A. 19. Fydriszewski F. 9. Larrosa E.
Substitutes
27. Boselli J. 4. Caceres M. 15. Cruz A. 90. Guerrero S. 8. Izaguirre M. 80. Mimbacas F. 25. Mujica I. 21. Perez F. 3. Prado A. 16. Rabino R. 28. Risso F. 12. Rossi N. (G)	3. Balanta M. 25. Chaux E. (G) 13. Chaverra F. 28. Davila A. 5. Escorcia L. 17. Mancilla G. 15. Maturana L. 31. Moreno D. 45. Ortega A. 30. Palacios H. 88. Viveros J.
Coaches
Mendez S.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Larrosa E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Palacios M. 🟨,
64', Gomez G. ↓, Cruz A. ↑,
71', Loboa H. 🟨,
72', Sanchez R. ↓, Mimbacas F. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Larregui B. ⚽,
76', Larrosa E. ↓, Chaverra F. ↑,
76', Serna A. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
85', Barrandeguy F. 🟨,
86', Palacios M. ↓, Escorcia L. ↑,
88', Mas E. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ind Medellín may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juventud de Las Piedras
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.02.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Central Español	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.02.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.02.26	Montevideo City Torque - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWLTT
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
28.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Liverpool Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
20.02.26	Llaneros SA - Independiente Medellín	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.02.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
14.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pereira	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTTWT

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