Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 26

Date: 11 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Júbilo Iwata		Kashima Antlers

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.7	1.7	Watch
	4.6	3.75	1.68
	4.44	3.7	1.7	Watch
	4.87	3.9	1.73
	4.73	3.81	1.74	Watch
	4.5	3.8	1.62
	4.79	3.88	1.72	Watch
	4.5	3.75	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.65 ↑ (3.97)	3.79 ↑ (3.52)	1.7 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
20.2%

Draw
24.8%

Kashima Antlers
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

26.7%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

26.1%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Kashima Antlers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kashima Antlers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	14.3%	64.3%

Júbilo Iwata - Kashima Antlers Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Kashima will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kashima: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Miura R. (G) 50. Uemura H. 15. Suzuki K. 32. Hilo H. 4. Matsubara K. 14. Matsumoto M. 16. Leo Gomes 19. Bruno Jose 37. Hirakawa R. 40. Kaneko S. 55. Watanabe R.	1. Hayakawa T. (G) 32. Nono K. 55. Ueda N. 5. Sekigawa I. 2. Anzai K. 13. Chinen K. 10. Shibasaki G. 14. Higuchi Y. 30. Nago S. 36. Morooka S. 40. Suzuki Y.
Substitutes
23. Croux J. 31. Furukawa Y. 6. Ito M. 26. Nishikubo S. 24. Sugimoto M. (G) 17. Weverton 10. Yamada H.	15. Fujii T. 77. Guilherme Parede 4. Milosavljevic R. 6. Misao K. 16. Sugai H. 41. Tokuda H. 31. Yamada T. (G)
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Popovic R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Suzuki Y. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Sekigawa I. 🟨,
65', Bruno Jose ↓, Croux J. ↑,
66', Kaneko S. ↓, Furukawa Y. ↑,
76', Shibasaki G. ↓, Misao K. ↑,
76', Higuchi Y. ↓, Fujii T. ↑,
76', Matsumoto M. ↓, Yamada H. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Yamada H. ⚽, Croux J. (A),
81', Hilo H. ↓, Ito M. ↑,
81', Hirakawa R. ↓, Nishikubo S. ↑,
82', Chinen K. ↓, Milosavljevic R. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Furukawa Y. ⚽, Uemura H. (A),
90+1', Nago S. ↓, Tokuda H. ↑,
90+1', Morooka S. ↓, Guilherme Parede ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Iwata won 0.

Iwata is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Kashima is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Kashima have a series of home games.

In this match Kashima is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Iwata won 1 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 18-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Iwata won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J1 League
07.08.24	Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
24.07.24	Júbilo Iwata - Reims	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
20.07.24	Júbilo Iwata - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
14.07.24	Shonan Bellmare - Júbilo Iwata	5:0 ✺
06.07.24	Júbilo Iwata - Kawasaki Frontale	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTLLT
- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
07.08.24	Kashima Antlers - Sagan Tosu	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
24.07.24	Kashima Antlers - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:5 ✺
Japan J1 League
20.07.24	Kashima Antlers - Tokyo	2:1 ✺
14.07.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kashima Antlers	4:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
10.07.24	Kashima Antlers - Fujieda MYFC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
30.03.24	Kashima Antlers - Júbilo Iwata	1:0
08.10.22	Júbilo Iwata - Kashima Antlers	3:3
03.05.22	Kashima Antlers - Júbilo Iwata	3:1
06.07.19	Kashima Antlers - Júbilo Iwata	2:0
30.03.19	Júbilo Iwata - Kashima Antlers	1:1
24.08.18	Kashima Antlers - Júbilo Iwata	1:1
18.07.18	Júbilo Iwata - Kashima Antlers	3:3

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