Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: RheinEnergieStadion (Cologne)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Köln		Borussia Mönchengladbach

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.9	3.5	Watch
	1.98	3.90	3.40
	1.95	3.7	3.6
	2.03	4.05	3.76
	2.03	3.85	3.39	Watch
	1.95	3.75	3.65
	2.02	4.01	3.68	Watch
	1.96	3.9	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.02)	3.88 ↓ (3.96)	3.57 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 0.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Köln
48.4%

Draw
24.7%

Borussia Mönchengladbach
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

24%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

23%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Borussia Mönchengladbach has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Mönchengladbach than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	2.6%	7.9%

Köln - Borussia Mönchengladbach Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.53) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Köln will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Köln will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Köln won 1.

Köln has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Borussia M has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Köln holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Köln: Ache R. (Thigh Injury) Castro-Montes A. (Muscle Injury) Dallinga T. (Knee Injury) Hubers T. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Borussia M: Castrop J. (Shoulder Injury) Honorat F. (Muscle Injury) Kuhn N. (Muscle Injury) Leopold E. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Borussia M: Itakura K. (Ankle Injury) Kleindienst T. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Köln has recorded 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:33 (averaging 1.6:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Köln against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 18:14 goals (averaging 1.8:1.4 per game).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

B. Monchengladbach: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4
18	B. Monchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6:16	-10	0

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Mönchengladbach - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 28.91%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Köln
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Viktoria Köln - Köln	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Hamburger SV - Köln	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Köln - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Stuttgart - Köln	4:1 ✺
29.08.26	Köln - Hoffenheim	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLTLW
- Borussia Mönchengladbach
Club Friendly
03.10.26	St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
24.09.26	Siegen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Elversberg	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.03.26	Köln - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:3
08.11.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Köln	3:1
09.03.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Köln	3:3
22.10.23	Köln - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:1
02.04.23	Köln - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0
09.10.22	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Köln	5:2
16.04.22	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Köln	1:3

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