Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
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Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6
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Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
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Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Peacock
Venezuela	Disney+
World	OneFootball TV


	Hamburger SV		Köln

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.60	2.50	Watch
	2.65	3.60	2.45
	2.65	3.50	2.43	Watch
	2.82	3.70	2.53
	2.65	3.64	2.53	Watch
	2.75	3.60	2.45
	2.74	3.65	2.49	Watch
	2.75	3.70	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.54)	3.62 ↓ (3.65)	2.48 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
35.2%

Draw
26.3%

Köln
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

26%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Hamburger SV - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Köln will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Köln: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hamburg (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. 23. Torunarigha J. 17. Omari W. 7. El Ouahdi Z. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. (C) 3. Wolfe D. 20. Vieira F. 11. Gronbaek A. 9. Moffi T.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 17. Castro-Montes A. 22. Simpson-Pusey J. 24. Lochoshvili L. 14. Mensah G. 5. Krauss T. 6. Skhiri E. 37. Maina L. 47. Moore M. 10. El Mala S. 27. Dallinga T.
Substitutes
5. Adeline M. 27. Daka P. 18. Jatta B. 37. Lemke L. 4. Nadir B. 43. Nandja S. 15. Poulsen Y. 19. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G)	9. Ache R. 30. Bulter M. 8. Johannesson I. 2. Schmied J. 28. Sebulonsen S. 3. Sosa B. 29. Thielmann J. 7. Waldschmidt L. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Polzin M.	Wagner R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Gronbaek A. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Capaldo N. ⚽, Gronbaek A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Moffi T. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Poulsen Y. ⚽, Gronbaek A. (A),
55', Mensah G. 🟨,
64', Mensah G. ↓, Sosa B. ↑,
64', Dallinga T. ↓, Ache R. ↑,
67', Gronbaek A. ↓, Daka P. ↑,
67', Castro-Montes A. ↓, Johannesson I. ↑,
77', El Ouahdi Z. ↓, Jatta B. ↑,
77', Wolfe D. ↓, Lemke L. ↑,
78', Johannesson I. 🟨,
81', Krauss T. ↓, Waldschmidt L. ↑,
81', Maina L. ↓, Bulter M. ↑,
84', Skhiri E. 🟨,
89', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Adeline M. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Ache R. ⚽, Skhiri E. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Köln could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Hamburg has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Hamburg: Bornauw S. (Muscle Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury) Vuskovic M. (Doping).

Confirmed absences for Köln: Hubers T. (Knee Injury).

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Hamburg has recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:25 (averaging 1.1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hamburg against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 10:8 goals (averaging 1.1:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Last Results with these Odds

Hamburger SV - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 37.34%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
13.09.26	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
06.09.26	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:5 ✺
29.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
24.08.26	Verl - Hamburger SV	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Toulouse - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLLWW
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Köln - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Stuttgart - Köln	4:1 ✺
29.08.26	Köln - Hoffenheim	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
24.08.26	Würzburger Kickers - Köln	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Köln - Hertha Berlin	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Hamburger SV - Köln	1:1
02.11.25	Köln - Hamburger SV	4:1
German 2 Bundesliga
18.01.25	Hamburger SV - Köln	1:0
02.08.24	Köln - Hamburger SV	1:2
Club Friendly
07.01.23	Köln - Hamburger SV	4:0
German DFB Pokal
18.01.22	Köln - Hamburger SV	1:2 penalties
German 2 Bundesliga
15.04.19	Köln - Hamburger SV	1:1

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