Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 12

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Achter de Kazerne (Mechelen)

Referee: van Damme K. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza


	KV Mechelen		Oud-Heverlee Leuven

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.55	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.65	Watch
	2.19	3.55	3.33
	1.81	3.79	4.12	Watch
	2.56	3.48	2.83	Watch
	1.92	3.75	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.92)	3.53 ↓ (3.7)	3.21 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KV Mechelen
42.5%

Draw
27.4%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KV Mechelen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that KV Mechelen's form might have worsened.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KV Mechelen than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for KV Mechelen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oud-Heverlee Leuven than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

KV Mechelen - Oud Heverlee Leuven Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Mechelen will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Leuven will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mechelen: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mechelen (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Miras N. (G) 2. Halhal R. 8. Konate M. 3. Marsa J. 7. Koudou T. 6. Hammar F. (C) 17. Servais M. 23. Zekri M. 11. Bafdili B. 20. Lauberbach L. 9. van Brederode M.	1. Leysen T. (G) 34. Nyakossi R. 3. Dussenne N. 28. Pletinckx E. 27. Gil O. 24. Lakomy L. 6. George W. 30. Akimoto T. 33. Maertens M. (C) 10. Maziz Y. 19. Ikwuemesi C.
Substitutes
38. Antonio B. 39. Decoene M. 4. Diouf G. 22. Golic L. 14. Raman B. 28. Salifou D. 33. St. Jago T. 18. Struyf I. 15. Van Ingelgom T. (G)	60. Azzouz M. 61. Jochmans O. (G) 39. Kaba S. 43. McAlinney L. 22. Mijatovic J. 20. Nsingi N. 99. Opoku D. 16. Prevot M. (G) 14. Teklab H. 9. Traore A. K. 7. Verlinden T. 77. Vlietinck T.
Coaches
Vanderbiest F.	Somers H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Hammar F. 🟨,
8', Koudou T. 🟨,
33', Bafdili B. 🟨,
35', Pletinckx E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bafdili B. ↓, Salifou D. ↑,
48', Maertens M. ↓, Mijatovic J. ↑,
53', Gil O. 🟨,
55', Lakomy L. 🟨,
63', Gil O. ↓, Opoku D. ↑,
63', Ikwuemesi C. ↓, Kaba S. ↑,
73', Zekri M. ↓, Antonio B. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Koudou T. ⚽, Lauberbach L. (A),
81', Lakomy L. ↓, Traore A. K. ↑,
82', Nyakossi R. ↓, Verlinden T. ↑,
86', Lauberbach L. ↓, Raman B. ↑,
90', Kaba S. 🟨,
90+1', Servais M. ↓, St. Jago T. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Pletinckx E. ⚽, Maziz Y. (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: ) and 15 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mechelen won 3.

In recent matches, Mechelen has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leuven is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Mechelen might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Mechelen: Kiki (Surgery) Kireev M. (Muscle Injury) Ozdemir H. (Collarbone injury) St. Jago T. (Knock)

There are questionable in Mechelen: De Wolf O. (Knock) Mrabti K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leuven: Maertens M. (Injury) Maziz Y. (Injury) Schrijvers S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mechelen won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 37:26. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mechelen won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:6. (average 2.1:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Oud-Heverlee Leuven - the odds 3.7 are the expected chance of winning is 25.46%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KV Mechelen
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
19.10.25	Dender EH - KV Mechelen	1:3 ✺
04.10.25	KV Mechelen - Sint-Truidense	1:3 ✺
28.09.25	Charleroi - KV Mechelen	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	KV Mechelen - Cercle Brugge	0:0 ✺
12.09.25	Standard Liège - KV Mechelen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLWTT
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
18.10.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Club Brugge	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Westerlo - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Anderlecht	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - RAAL La Louvière	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Zulte Waregem - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
03.05.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - KV Mechelen	1:2
13.04.25	KV Mechelen - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:1
31.01.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - KV Mechelen	1:0
05.10.24	KV Mechelen - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	5:0
27.04.24	KV Mechelen - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3:0
30.03.24	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - KV Mechelen	2:3
17.03.24	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - KV Mechelen	1:0

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