Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 11

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Dender Football Complex (Denderleeuw)

Referee: Allaerts M. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza


	Dender EH		KV Mechelen

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.4	2.6	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.65
	2.69	3.37	2.74
	4.27	4.14	1.70	Watch
	2.66	3.38	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.78)	3.52 ↑ (3.4)	2.47 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dender EH
32.9%

Draw
27.7%

KV Mechelen
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

27.8%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

28.4%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dender EH has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

KV Mechelen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KV Mechelen than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.5%	4.5%	90.9%

Dender EH - KV Mechelen Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Dender EH will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). Mechelen will win (votes: 20 - 90.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mechelen: 78.9% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mechelen (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): KV Mechelen will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Mechelen (votes: 9 - 90%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Dietsch G. (G) 70. Sambu M. 5. Marijnissen L. 21. Cools K. (C) 44. De Fougerolles L. 88. Ferraro F. 18. Rodes N. 17. Mbamba N. 16. Kvet R. 90. Berte M. 77. Nsimba B.	13. Miras N. (G) 2. Halhal R. 8. Konate M. 3. Marsa J. 7. Koudou T. 6. Hammar F. (C) 17. Servais M. 23. Zekri M. 19. Mrabti K. 20. Lauberbach L. 9. van Brederode M.
Substitutes
23. Acquah D. 1. Fortin L. (G) 22. Fredrick B. 7. Goncalves B. 20. Hrncar D. 19. Kadiri J. A. 15. Koton K. 67. Moutha-Sebtaoui N. 11. Oratmangoen R.	38. Antonio B. 11. Bafdili B. 39. Decoene M. 4. Diouf G. 22. Golic L. 14. Raman B. 29. Salifou D. 18. Struyf I. 15. Van Ingelgom T. (G)
Coaches
Milkon H.	Vanderbiest F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Konate M. ⚽,
34', Mrabti K. ↓, Salifou D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
59', Sambu M. ↓, Hrncar D. ↑,
59', Berte M. ↓, Kadiri J. A. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, van Brederode M. ⚽,
66', Cools K. 🟨,
71', De Fougerolles L. ↓, Fredrick B. ↑,
71', Rodes N. ↓, Moutha-Sebtaoui N. ↑,
75', Zekri M. ↓, Antonio B. ↑,
82', van Brederode M. ↓, Raman B. ↑,
82', Koudou T. ↓, Diouf G. ↑,
83', Cools K. ↓, Oratmangoen R. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 3, Lauberbach L. ⚽, Marsa J. (A),
90+6', 1 - 3, Nsimba B. (Pen),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: )).

Dender EH is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Mechelen has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Dender EH may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Dender EH: Dion M. S. (Muscle Injury) Toshevski D. (Red Card) Viltard M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Mechelen: Kiki (Surgery) Kireev M. (Muscle Injury) Salifou D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Dender EH: Verrips M. (Knock)

There are questionable in Mechelen: De Wolf O. (Knock) Ozdemir H. (Collarbone injury) St. Jago T. (Knock)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Dender EH won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 1.8:3.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Dender EH won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:7. (average 2:3.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FCV Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
05.10.25	Genk - Dender EH	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Dender EH - RAAL La Louvière	0:0 ✺
19.09.25	Gent - Dender EH	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Dender EH - Saint-Gilloise	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Charleroi - Dender EH	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL
- KV Mechelen
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
04.10.25	KV Mechelen - Sint-Truidense	1:3 ✺
28.09.25	Charleroi - KV Mechelen	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	KV Mechelen - Cercle Brugge	0:0 ✺
12.09.25	Standard Liège - KV Mechelen	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	KV Mechelen - RAAL La Louvière	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
24.05.25	Dender EH - KV Mechelen	2:2
04.04.25	KV Mechelen - Dender EH	5:2
16.03.25	KV Mechelen - Dender EH	2:1
26.10.24	Dender EH - KV Mechelen	2:5

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