Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kagoshima United		Nara Club

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.6	4.6
	1.64	3.65	4.6
	1.68	4.04	5.19
	1.64	3.85	5.17	Watch
	1.67	3.3	4.75
	1.65	3.79	5	Watch
	1.64	3.65	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.58)	3.7 ↓ (3.9)	4.84 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
56%

Draw
25%

Nara Club
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

23.2%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

25%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Nara Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kagoshima United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nara Club than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Kagoshima United - Nara Club Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Yamauchi K. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 29. Okazaki M. 7. Chibu K. 3. Sugii H. 73. Tanaka T. 27. Yamaguchi T. 6. Watanabe E. 11. Fukuda M. 9. Rodrigo Angelotti 18. Kawamura K.	15. Okada S. (G) 40. Yoshimura Y. 3. Sawada Y. 22. Ikoma K. 32. Yu Y. 20. Kunitake Y. 25. Kamigaki R. 8. Horiuchi H. 23. Okada Y. 17. Tamura S. 7. Tamura R.
Substitutes
20. Endo M. 8. Fujimura K. 1. Fujishima E. (G) 19. Inaba S. 26. Kawashima K. 92. Nduka C. 10. Take S. 36. Yonezawa R. 14. Yoshio K.	11. Hyakuda M. 70. Kawatani N. 14. Nakashima K. 6. Nakayama M. 33. Sato H. 96. Vito M. (G) 10. Yamamoto S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Okazaki M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 0 - 1, Okada Y. ⚽, Tamura S. (A),
62', Kawamura K. ↓, Take S. ↑,
62', Rodrigo Angelotti ↓, Nduka C. ↑,
62', Tanaka T. ↓, Yoshio K. ↑,
68', Tamura R. ↓, Kawatani N. ↑,
68', Horiuchi H. ↓, Nakashima K. ↑,
68', Okada S. ↓, Vito M. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Tamura S. ⚽, Okada Y. (A),
73', 1 - 2, Fukuda M. ⚽, Aoki Y. (A),
78', Fukuda M. ↓, Yonezawa R. ↑,
82', Chibu K. 🟨,
84', Watanabe E. ↓, Inaba S. ↑,
87', Ikoma K. ↓, Sato H. ↑,
87', Yu Y. ↓, Nakayama M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 8).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Kagoshima United is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kagoshima United won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Kagoshima United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
20.04.25	Gainare Tottori - Kagoshima United	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	Kagoshima United - Azul Claro Numazu	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Nagano Parceiro - Kagoshima United	1:3 ✺
30.03.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Kagoshima United - Montedio Yamagata	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTWTL
- Nara Club
Japan J3 League
19.04.25	Nara Club - Azul Claro Numazu	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Nara Club	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Nara Club - Gifu	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Nara Club	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Nara Club - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
05.11.23	Kagoshima United - Nara Club	1:1
03.06.23	Nara Club - Kagoshima United	0:0

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