Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Almaty Central Stadium (Almaty)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Belgium	VTM 2
Germany	Laola1
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Kairat		Anderlecht

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.40	3.20	2.20
	3.25	3	2.25	Watch
	3.33	3.24	2.38
	3.27	3.24	2.29	Watch
	3.3	3.15	2.2
	3.31	3.21	2.28	Watch
	3.25	3.2	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.49)	3.17 ↓ (3.43)	2.25 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kairat
28.6%

Draw
29.7%

Anderlecht
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

28.1%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

30%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kairat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kairat's form might have worsened.

Anderlecht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Anderlecht's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kairat, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Anderlecht than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Anderlecht, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.1%	16.3%	77.6%

Kairat - Anderlecht Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Kairat will win (votes: 3 - 6.1%). Anderlecht will win (votes: 38 - 77.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 16.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Anderlecht: 65.9% – 89.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Anderlecht (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Anderlecht (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Anderlecht (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Anarbekov T. (C) 20. Tapalov E. 25. Shirobokov A. 44. Lucas Africo 3. Mata L. 24. Mrynskiy A. 13. Oksanen J. 22. Mendonsa G. 19. Jukkola O. 28. Gual M. 9. Edmilson	26. Coosemans C. (C) 79. Maamar A. 27. Petrot L. 4. Biancone G. 6. Augustinsson L. 18. Ambros L. 55. Kana M. 24. Llansana E. 9. Cvetkovic M. 14. Sikan D. 61. Nga Kana J.
Substitutes
27. Abish M. 8. Baybek O. 81. Bekbolat I. 15. Birkurmanov M. 30. Buch D. (G) 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 4. Kasabulat D. 5. Kurgin L. 32. Nurgaliev A. 6. Sadybekov A. 17. Tuyakbaev A.	11. Antman O. 50. Barry K. 91. Bertaccini A. 83. Degreef T. 32. Heekeren J. (G) 68. Kalonji Kafumpata N. 2. Keita Z. 53. Ojea N. 49. Onia Seke J. 33. Seghers M. (G) 62. Vroninks B. 10. Winkler M.
Coaches
Urazbakhtin R.	Bruno V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2', 0 - 1, Oksanen J. (Own goal),
21', Cvetkovic M. 🟨,
24', 0 - 2, Ambros L. ⚽,
38', Shirobokov A. 🟥,
45+1', 0 - 3, Sikan D. ⚽, Ambros L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mrynskiy A. ↓, Baybek O. ↑,
46', Cvetkovic M. ↓, Degreef T. ↑,
49', Maamar A. 🟨,
52', Biancone G. 🟨,
60', Gual M. ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
60', Edmilson ↓, Bekbolat I. ↑,
63', Nga Kana J. ↓, Antman O. ↑,
64', Oksanen J. 🟨,
72', Oksanen J. ↓, Sadybekov A. ↑,
72', Mata L. ↓, Kurgin L. ↑,
73', Llansana E. 🟨,
74', Maamar A. ↓, Winkler M. ↑,
84', Sikan D. ↓, Bertaccini A. ↑,
84', Llansana E. ↓, Ojea N. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In recent matches, Kairat has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Anderlecht is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Anderlecht may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kairat has had a series of home games.

Anderlecht will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Anderlecht: 1.47%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
23	Anderlecht	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0

Last Results with these Odds

Anderlecht - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 33.18%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
15.08.26	Kairat - Ulytau	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Kairat - Levski Sofia	0:1 ✺
04.08.26	Levski Sofia - Kairat	1:0 ✺
29.07.26	Kairat - Omonia	2:0 penalties ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.07.26	Kairat - Ordabasy	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLLWW
- Anderlecht
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
16.08.26	Beveren - Anderlecht	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.08.26	Anderlecht - PAOK	3:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
09.08.26	Anderlecht - RAAL La Louvière	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.26	PAOK - Anderlecht	0:1 ✺
30.07.26	Anderlecht - Hammarby	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 LWWWW

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