Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 11 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Kairat		Levski Sofia

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.25	Watch
	2.87	3.10	2.60
	3.45	3	2.28	Watch
	3.62	3.05	2.33
	2.93	2.99	2.65	Watch
	3.6	3	2.2
	3.21	3.13	2.38	Watch
	3.4	3	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.13)	3.05 ↓ (3.46)	2.38 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kairat
28.7%

Draw
31.2%

Levski Sofia
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

28.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kairat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kairat's form might have worsened.

Levski Sofia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Levski Sofia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (+17.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kairat, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Levski Sofia than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Levski Sofia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	32.1%	46.4%

Kairat - Levski Sofia Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Kairat will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%). Levski will win (votes: 13 - 48.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 29.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Levski: 29.3% – 66.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Anarbekov T. (C) 4. Kasabulat D. 25. Shirobokov A. 44. Lucas Africo 3. Mata L. 8. Baybek O. 13. Oksanen J. 24. Mrynskiy A. 22. Mendonsa G. 19. Jukkola O. 28. Gual M.	92. Vutsov S. (G) 21. Neves A. 50. Dimitrov K. (C) 31. Serafimov N. 20. Centelles A. 19. Moubarik M. 18. Trdin G. 35. Serginho 11. Oko-Flex A. 17. Everton Bala 7. Reinaldo
Substitutes
27. Abish M. 81. Bekbolat I. 15. Birkurmanov M. 30. Buch D. (G) 9. Edmilson 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 5. Kurgin L. 32. Nurgaliev A. 6. Sadybekov A. 20. Tapalov E. 59. Tashpulatov D. 17. Tuyakbaev A.	2. Hevertton S. 27. Kusso D. 78. Lukov M. (G) 3. Maicon 4. Makoun C. 10. Mitkov A. 9. Perea J. 77. Raychev A. 22. Soula M. 28. Stoyanchov S. 1. Vladimirov O. (G)
Coaches
Urazbakhtin R.	Velazquez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Everton Bala 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Reinaldo ⚽, Everton Bala (A),
45+6', Baybek O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Baybek O. ↓, Bekbolat I. ↑,
60', Kasabulat D. 🟨,
64', Kasabulat D. ↓, Edmilson ↑,
74', Neves A. 🟨,
79', Neves A. ↓, Soula M. ↑,
79', Everton Bala ↓, Maicon ↑,
79', Oko-Flex A. ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
83', Reinaldo ↓, Perea J. ↑,
84', Gual M. ↓, Birkurmanov M. ↑,
88', Serafimov N. 🟨,
90', Perea J. 🟨,
90+2', Serginho ↓, Mitkov A. ↑,
90+5', Mendonsa G. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Turkestan Arena.

In recent matches, Kairat has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Levski is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kairat may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kairat won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kairat Almaty
UEFA Champions League
04.08.26	Levski Sofia - Kairat	1:0 ✺
29.07.26	Kairat - Omonia	2:0 penalties ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.07.26	Kairat - Ordabasy	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.07.26	Omonia - Kairat	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
18.07.26	Atyrau - Kairat	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWLW
- Levski Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
07.08.26	Levski Sofia - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.08.26	Levski Sofia - Kairat	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
01.08.26	Levski Sofia - Septemvri Sofia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Universitatea Craiova - Levski Sofia	2:2 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
25.07.26	Lokomotiv Sofia - Levski Sofia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
04.08.26	Levski Sofia - Kairat	1:0

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