Match Info

Premier League - Round 19

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Almaty Central Stadium (Almaty)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Kairat		Ordabasy

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.25	3.10
	1.94	3.15	3.30	Watch
	2.13	3.30	3.33
	2	3.31	3.53	Watch
	2.10	3.05	3.25
	2.18	3.43	3.12	Watch
	2.00	3.20	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.5)	3.24 ↑ (2.98)	3.27 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kairat
44.3%

Draw
28%

Ordabasy
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

30.9%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

30%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kairat's performance.

Ordabasy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kairat that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Kairat - Ordabasy Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Kairat will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kairat (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Anarbekov T. (G) 4. Kasabulat D. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 44. Lucas Africo 24. Mrynskiy A. 22. Mendonsa G. 13. Oksanen J. 3. Mata L. 28. Gual M. 81. Bekbolat I. 7. Jorginho	1. Shayzada B. (G) 55. Amanovic A. 25. Maliy S. (C) 3. Kilama G. 22. Astanov S. 77. Abagna D. 16. Capatina M. 5. Antic N. 19. Leo Natel 28. Johnsen B. 15. Amir Z.
Substitutes
8. Baybek O. 15. Birkurmanov M. 30. Buch D. (G) 9. Edmilson 19. Jukkola O. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 5. Kurgin L. 32. Nurgaliev A. 6. Sadybekov A. 25. Shirobokov A. 20. Tapalov E. 17. Tuyakbaev A.	24. Abdukhalyk A. (G) 10. Astanov E. 9. Everton 4. Keiler S. 44. Keita T. 23. Nurymbet A. 13. Tolepbergen K. (G) 14. Turganov A. 11. Vakulko Y. 8. Zhaksybaev U.
Coaches
Urazbakhtin R.	Martin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Jorginho ↓, Jukkola O. ↑,
14', 1 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Mata L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Lucas Africo 🟨,
57', Martynovich A. 🟨,
62', Gual M. ↓, Edmilson ↑,
67', Leo Natel 🟨,
69', Leo Natel ↓, Astanov E. ↑,
69', Capatina M. ↓, Keita T. ↑,
70', Mendonsa G. ↓, Shirobokov A. ↑,
70', Bekbolat I. ↓, Kurgin L. ↑,
71', Kasabulat D. ↓, Baybek O. ↑,
74', Amanovic A. ↓, Everton ↑,
82', Johnsen B. 🟨,
87', 2 - 0, Jukkola O. ⚽, Kurgin L. (A),
90+3', 2 - 1, Johnsen B. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kairat won 3.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Ordabasy may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kairat could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kairat won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kairat won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:8. (average 2.3:0.9).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Ordabasy: 69.49% Kairat Almaty: 29.59%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51:18	33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51:20	31	57

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kairat Almaty
UEFA Champions League
22.07.26	Omonia - Kairat	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
18.07.26	Atyrau - Kairat	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.26	Sutjeska - Kairat	0:2 ✺
08.07.26	Kairat - Sutjeska	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
02.07.26	Kairat - Okzhetpes	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWW
- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
19.07.26	Ordabasy - Yelimay Semey	3:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
15.07.26	Ordabasy - Altai Semey	3:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
11.07.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ordabasy	3:2 ✺
05.07.26	Ordabasy - Ulytau	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Ulytau - Ordabasy	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
28.05.26	Ordabasy - Kairat	2:1
29.06.25	Ordabasy - Kairat	0:1
Kazakh Cup
14.05.25	Ordabasy - Kairat	1:0
Kazakh Premier League
08.03.25	Kairat - Ordabasy	4:0
02.11.24	Kairat - Ordabasy	2:1
31.03.24	Ordabasy - Kairat	1:2
20.08.23	Ordabasy - Kairat	1:0

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