Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Almaty Central Stadium (Almaty) 🌤️ ...


	Kairat		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.75	9.50
	1.27	4.60	7.50	Watch
	1.21	5.84	12.21
	1.35	4.4	8.26	Watch
	1.17	5.75	12.00
	1.25	6.20	9.58
	1.24	5.20	9.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.3)	5.39 ↑ (4.51)	9.78 ↓ (10.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kairat
73.6%

Draw
17%

Ertis Pavlodar
9.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70.7%

20.4%

8.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Kairat - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Anarbekov T. (G) 20. Tapalov E. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 25. Shirobokov A. 3. Mata L. 13. Oksanen J. 22. Mendonsa G. 17. Tuyakbaev A. 28. Gual M. 19. Jukkola O. 9. Edmilson	1. Rikhard M. (G) 66. Malikaydar S. 5. Toleuov B. 26. Mbodj M. 4. Slambekov D. 12. Karimov R. 13. Baybosynov N. 35. Ramos L. 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 32. Falaye O. A. 9. Leonardo Kalil
Substitutes
27. Abish M. 8. Baybek O. 81. Bekbolat I. 15. Birkurmanov M. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 4. Kasabulat D. 5. Kurgin L. 24. Mrynskiy A. 59. Tashpulatov D.	8. Esimbekov D. 25. Jevtic M. 24. Khalmatov M. 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 77. Nurlan A. 15. Nyrkov D. 17. Opeh S. 97. Poe J. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G)
Coaches
Urazbakhtin R.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Edmilson (A),
16', 2 - 0, Edmilson ⚽,
26', Karimov R. 🟨,
31', Falaye O. A. ↓, Mukhametzhanov T. ↑,
31', Baybosynov N. ↓, Esimbekov D. ↑,
34', 3 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Edmilson (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rikhard M. ↓, Sarnavskyi B. ↑,
46', Mendonsa G. ↓, Abish M. ↑,
49', Mukhametzhanov T. 🟨,
54', Tuyakbaev A. 🟨,
61', Martynovich A. ↓, Bekbolat I. ↑,
62', Edmilson ↓, Baybek O. ↑,
69', Leonardo Kalil ↓, Nurlan A. ↑,
69', Mata L. ↓, Kurgin L. ↑,
74', 4 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Bekbolat I. (A),
79', Gual M. ↓, Birkurmanov M. ↑,
80', Ramos L. ↓, Khalmatov M. ↑,
82', Toleuov B. 🟨,
84', 5 - 0, Tuyakbaev A. ⚽,

Preview

Event will be played on 17.10. 0:00.

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kairat won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Kairat may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kairat has had a series of home games.

In this match, Kairat is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kairat won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 38:23. (average 1.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kairat won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 19:6. (average 2.1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Kairat Almaty ✔	29	19	7	3	59:22	37	64
12	Ertis Pavlodar	29	7	8	14	29:44	-15	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kairat Almaty
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Riga - Kairat	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
10.10.26	Kairat - Zhetysu	1:0 ✺
17.09.26	Astana - Kairat	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Kairat - Tobol Kostanay	1:4 ✺
09.09.26	Kairat - Zhenis	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWLLW
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
14.10.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Astana	0:1 ✺
10.10.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kyzylzhar	0:2 ✺
18.09.26	Altai Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1
03.11.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	5:0
04.08.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:2
19.05.19	Kairat - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1
27.10.18	Kairat - Ertis Pavlodar	0:1
06.07.18	Kairat - Ertis Pavlodar	4:0
Kazakh Cup
27.06.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	3:1

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