The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ertis Pavlodar 44.6%
Draw 27.8%
Kyzylzhar 27.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
52.3%
26.2%
21.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.7%
24.6%
20.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ertis Pavlodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ertis Pavlodar's form might have worsened.
Kyzylzhar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kyzylzhar's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (+11.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ertis Pavlodar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyzylzhar than the current prediction. (-7.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kyzylzhar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
25%
25%
Ertis Pavlodar - Kyzylzhar Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Kyzylzhar will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Rikhard M. (G) 5. Toleuov B. 26. Mbodj M. 4. Slambekov D. 35. Ramos L. 56. Yudenkov R. 6. Shimamura Y. 15. Nyrkov D. 9. Leonardo Kalil 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 8. Esimbekov D.
1. Celeadnic D. (G) 11. Cheredinov A. 55. Noyok O. 28. Urosevic S. 27. Gubarev N. 10. Bjartalid J. 8. Makarenko E. 96. Abiken A. 77. Latifi L. 23. Piscevic N. 13. Bahoken S.
Substitutes
13. Baybosynov N. 21. Berdibek D. 32. Falaye O. A. 25. Jevtic M. 40. Kanat A. 24. Khalmatov M. 77. Nurlan A. 17. Opeh S. 97. Poe J. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G)
99. Beugre E. 17. Eleukin M. 39. Erniyazov S. (G) 90. Kenzhadoev A. 29. Loginovsky G. 7. Muldinov T. 88. Pertsukh Y. 19. Serikuly D. 71. Sokolenko A. 53. Talyspayev D. (G) 79. Valgushev G. 78. Zhetpisbay S.
Coaches
Shoytymov E.
Zhukovskiy V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Abiken A. ⚽,
38', Ramos L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Cheredinov A. ↓, Sokolenko A. ↑,
54', Shimamura Y. 🟨,
58', Nyrkov D. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Latifi L. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Yudenkov R. ↓, Khalmatov M. ↑,
75', Esimbekov D. ↓, Poe J. ↑,
78', Slambekov D. 🟨,
80', Leonardo Kalil ↓, Nurlan A. ↑,
81', Mbodj M. 🟨,
82', Bahoken S. ↓, Beugre E. ↑,
89', Makarenko E. ↓, Pertsukh Y. ↑,
90+3', Gubarev N. ↓, Serikuly D. ↑,
90+3', Latifi L. ↓, Eleukin M. ↑,
90+6', Urosevic S. 🟨,
Preview
Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 11th and 14th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 0.
In recent outings, Ertis has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Kyzylzhar is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Ertis is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Ertis has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:7 (averaging 1.5:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Ertis against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 7:4 goals (averaging 1.8:1 per game).
Watch
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Rikhard M. (G) 
Mbodj M. 
Ramos L. 
Yudenkov R. 
Shimamura Y. 
Celeadnic D. (G) 
Noyok O. 
Urosevic S. 
Bjartalid J. 
Latifi L. 
Bahoken S. 
Falaye O. A. 
Poe J. 
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