Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov (Šymkent)

Referee: Abdullaev B. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ordabasy		Ulytau

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.26	5.00	8.75
	1.25	4.60	8.50	Watch
	1.30	5.02	11.38
	1.24	5.93	8.96	Watch
	1.26	4.60	11.00
	1.33	4.85	8.96
	1.28	4.90	8.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.45)	4.99 ↑ (3.87)	9.45 ↑ (7.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ordabasy
71.9%

Draw
18.4%

Ulytau
9.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

23.8%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

22%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ordabasy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ordabasy's performance.

Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ordabasy - Ulytau Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Ordabasy (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ordabasy will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ordabasy (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shayzada B. (G) 22. Astanov S. (C) 3. Kilama G. 55. Amanovic A. 5. Antic N. 11. Vakulko Y. 77. Abagna D. 16. Capatina M. 19. Leo Natel 28. Johnsen B. 10. Astanov E.	1. Nepogodov D. (G) 12. Afanasenko V. 28. Bugulov G. 25. Bukhal G. 3. Keiler S. (C) 8. Vachiberadze B. 18. Bougnone A. 9. Serikkul R. 90. Martin D. 45. Zulfikarov B. 22. Chernyak I.
Substitutes
24. Abdukhalyk A. (G) 15. Amir Z. 9. Everton 44. Keita T. 25. Maliy S. 23. Nurymbet A. 27. Serik N. 21. Toktybay B. 20. Toktybay M. 13. Tolepbergen K. (G) 14. Turganov A. 8. Zhaksybaev U.	2. Carmona Sierra D. 4. Chalkin M. 17. Daniyarov B. 14. Harada H. 7. Kishi K. 69. Maulenov D. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 11. Smith A. 10. Taubay A. 78. Zakirov T. (G)
Coaches
Martin A.	Mazbaev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Astanov E. ↓, Everton ↑,
46', Vakulko Y. ↓, Amir Z. ↑,
58', Serikkul R. ↓, Harada H. ↑,
58', Vachiberadze B. ↓, Kishi K. ↑,
58', Zulfikarov B. ↓, Smith A. ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Johnsen B. ⚽, Abagna D. (A),
81', Bugulov G. 🟨,
81', Chernyak I. ↓, Taubay A. ↑,
87', Bukhal G. 🟨,
90+2', Amir Z. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 6).

Ordabasy is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ulytau has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Ordabasy is the obvious favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ordabasy won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Ordabasy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Ordabasy: 69.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51:18	33	61
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24:32	-8	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Ulytau - Ordabasy	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Ordabasy - Kaspiy Aktau	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Yelimay Semey - Ordabasy	1:3 ✺
28.05.26	Ordabasy - Kairat	2:1 ✺
23.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ordabasy	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWWW
- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Ulytau - Ordabasy	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Kaisar - Ulytau	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Ulytau - Zhenis	2:1 ✺
27.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Ulytau	1:1 ✺
22.05.26	Astana - Ulytau	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Ulytau - Ordabasy	0:1
24.08.25	Ulytau - Ordabasy	2:1
24.05.25	Ordabasy - Ulytau	0:1

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