Match Info

JAPAN: YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/64-finals

Date: 20 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Pikara (Marugame)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 7


	Kamatamare Sanuki		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	6	4.2	1.45	Watch
	4.6	3.5	1.61
	6.8	4.3	1.45	Watch
	7.16	4.47	1.38	Watch
	6.5	3.9	1.44
	7.27	4.3	1.44	Watch
	6.8	4.3	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.45 ↑ (4.22)	4.14 ↑ (3.7)	1.46 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kamatamare Sanuki
14.3%

Draw
22.3%

Cerezo Osaka
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

25.1%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

21.8%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kamatamare Sanuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kamatamare Sanuki's form might have worsened.

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cerezo Osaka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kamatamare Sanuki than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kamatamare Sanuki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-17.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerezo Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Kamatamare Sanuki - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Imamura Y. (G) 18. Miyaichi T. 3. Ibayashi A. 55. Fujii Y. 33. Kawakami S. 96. Yoshida J. 4. Takemura S. 24. Ueno A. 13. Maekawa T. 10. Kawanishi S. 11. Eduardo	21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 16. Okuda H. 3. Shindo R. 44. Hatanaka S. 6. Noborizato K. 10. Tanaka S. 55. Vitor Bueno 13. Nakajima M. 77. Fernandes L. 11. Thiago Andrade 9. Rafael Ratao
Substitutes
20. Dunga I. 90. Goto Y. 14. Ishikura J. 15. Iwamoto K. 17. Makiyama K. 32. Matsubara K. (G) 29. Tao K. 99. Tsukegi Y. 2. Uchida M.	1. Fukui K. (G) 14. Funaki K. 8. Kagawa S. 5. Kida H. 38. Kitano S. 33. Nishio R. 17. Sakata R. 7. Uejo S. 24. Wonggorn J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Thiago Andrade ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
47', 1 - 1, Hatanaka S. (Own goal),
59', 1 - 2, Rafael Ratao ⚽,
59', Kawanishi S. ↓, Goto Y. ↑,
59', Fujii Y. ↓, Tao K. ↑,
69', Thiago Andrade ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
69', Nakajima M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
74', 1 - 3, Fernandes L. (Pen),
77', Ueno A. ↓, Ishikura J. ↑,
77', 1 - 4, Vitor Bueno ⚽,
77', Eduardo ↓, Dunga I. ↑,
80', Vitor Bueno ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
80', Rafael Ratao ↓, Uejo S. ↑,
81', Maekawa T. ↓, Tsukegi Y. ↑,
84', 1 - 5, Uejo S. ⚽,
87', Fernandes L. ↓, Wonggorn J. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Kamatamare is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cerezo Osaka is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Cerezo Osaka is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Kamatamare won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:6 (average 1.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Kamatamare won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kamatamare Sanuki
Japan J3 League
15.03.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Ryūkyū	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Nara Club	2:0 ✺
16.02.25	Kagoshima United - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLTWT
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Yokohama FC - Cerezo Osaka	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	1:1 ✺
02.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka	2:2 ✺
26.02.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Cerezo Osaka - Shonan Bellmare	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
24.07.16	Kamatamare Sanuki - Cerezo Osaka	2:1
04.06.16	Cerezo Osaka - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:3
25.10.15	Cerezo Osaka - Kamatamare Sanuki	0:0
26.04.15	Kamatamare Sanuki - Cerezo Osaka	1:3

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