Match Info

Premier League - Round 31

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Palms Sports Arena (Baku)

Referee: Qurbanov T. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Neftchi Baku		Shamakhi

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.85	5.5	Watch
	1.49	3.96	5.89
	1.53	3.71	6.18	Watch
	1.5	3.6	6
	1.46	3.86	6.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.64)	3.8 ↑ (3.58)	5.98 ↑ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
60.9%

Draw
24%

Shamakhi
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

25.4%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

24.2%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Neftchi Baku's performance.

Shamakhi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shamakhi than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Balayev E. (G) 15. Badalov E. 33. Breno Almeida 6. D'Almeida S. 11. Faraj I. 5. Igor Ribeiro 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 22. Ortiz L. 77. Sacko F. 7. Safarov E. 10. Vargas F.	1. Ricardo Fernandes (G) 82. Abbasov R. 5. Agcabayov A. (C) 13. Apolinario R. 11. Balau D. 4. Cezar 97. Mammadov O. 8. Msanga A. 9. Rossi K. 2. Rzayev A. 3. Veremeev V.
Substitutes
4. Camalov E. 28. Curci A. 81. Hasanov M. (G) 17. Khachayev M. 14. Kuc E. 18. Mathew I. 13. Piric K. (G) 23. Rezabala J. 19. Salyanskiy A. 24. Seck M. 70. Shtogrin A.	7. Adilkhanov E. 88. Fernandes R. 14. Gafarov R. 99. Hashimov S. (G) 21. Ismayilov B. 80. Ismayilov H. 17. Maharramli R. 77. Mehraliyev N. 62. Seyiahmadov A. (G) 19. Shuaibu A. 27. Suleymanov E. 10. Tircoveanu A.
Coaches
Vernidub Y.	Abbasov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Mahmudov E. ⚽,
9', Ortiz L. 🟨,
20', Agcabayov A. 🟨,
41', Mammadov O. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 2 - 0, Faraj I. ⚽,
64', Rossi K. 🟨,
64', Msanga A. ↓, Adilkhanov E. ↑,
64', D'Almeida S. ↓, Mathew I. ↑,
64', Safarov E. ↓, Rezabala J. ↑,
64', Ortiz L. ↓, Seck M. ↑,
74', Vargas F. ↓, Salyanskiy A. ↑,
83', 3 - 0, Breno Almeida ⚽,
84', Faraj I. ↓, Shtogrin A. ↑,
90+1', Fernandes R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 2.

Neftchi is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Shamakhi has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Neftchi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Neftchi is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 14 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 40:17. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Neftchi won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 26:11. (average 2.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Neftci Baku	6	5	0	1	18:5	13	15
6	Shamakhi	6	2	3	1	8:6	2	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
05.05.26	Karvan - Neftchi Baku	0:3 ✺
30.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	1:5 ✺
17.04.26	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLTW
- Shamakhi FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
03.05.26	Shamakhi - Sabah	0:3 ✺
26.04.26	Shamakhi - Kapaz	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Karvan - Shamakhi	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	0:0 ✺
07.04.26	Zira - Shamakhi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
28.02.26	Shamakhi - Neftchi Baku	2:2
16.08.25	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	1:1
07.04.25	Shamakhi - Neftchi Baku	0:2
31.01.25	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	1:0
08.11.24	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	2:2
31.08.24	Shamakhi - Neftchi Baku	0:0
14.05.23	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	1:1

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