Match Info

Premier League - Round 30

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Ukraina Stadium (Lviv)

Referee: Afanasyev O. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ukraine	UPL TV
World	Onefootball


	Karpaty Lviv		Zorya Luhansk

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.35
	2.1	3.23	3.42
	2.17	3.24	3.54	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.3
	2.17	3.37	3.44	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.13)	3.23 ↓ (3.79)	3.4 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karpaty Lviv
44.1%

Draw
28.6%

Zorya Luhansk
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

25.1%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

26.8%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karpaty Lviv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Zorya Luhansk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karpaty Lviv than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zorya Luhansk than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Karpaty Lviv - Zorya Luhansk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Domchak N. (G) 11. Miroshnichenko D. 4. Baboglo V. (C) 44. Kholod V. 73. Lyakh R. 18. Eriki 70. Alkain X. 8. Chachua A. 15. Rubchynskyi V. 26. Kostenko Y. 37. Bruninho	1. Saputin O. (G) 44. Perduta I. 55. Jordan 4. Eskinja G. 47. Vantukh R. 6. Popara D. 77. Kushnirenko B. 9. Slesar A. 21. Basic J. 27. Jelavic D. 28. Budkivsky P. (C)
Substitutes
3. Adamyuk V. 5. Buleza A. 28. Dyedov O. 47. Jean Pedroso 19. Karabin Y. 30. Klishchuk A. (G) 14. Kvasnytsya I. 80. Mysak R. (G) 20. Sapuga M. 33. Shakh A. 55. Stetskov T. 77. Sych O.	88. Bah S. 8. Dryshlyuk K. 5. Janjic A. 10. Juninho 31. Kosivskyi V. (G) 23. Malysh N. 22. Micin P. 70. Verley R. 14. Yaroshenko S. 17. Zadorozhnyi F.
Coaches
Fernandez F.	Skrypnyk V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Kushnirenko B. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Bruninho ⚽, Kostenko Y. (A),
37', Jordan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Miroshnichenko D. 🟨,
60', Jelavic D. ↓, Juninho ↑,
60', Popara D. ↓, Micin P. ↑,
60', Jordan ↓, Janjic A. ↑,
63', Bruninho ↓, Karabin Y. ↑,
63', Miroshnichenko D. ↓, Sych O. ↑,
67', Kushnirenko B. ↓, Dryshlyuk K. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Vantukh R. ⚽,
77', Baboglo V. 🟨,
80', Alkain X. ↓, Kvasnytsya I. ↑,
87', Kostenko Y. ↓, Dyedov O. ↑,
87', Rubchynskyi V. ↓, Jean Pedroso ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Janjic A. ⚽, Micin P. (A),
90', Janjic A. 🟨,
90+1', Slesar A. ↓, Yaroshenko S. ↑,
90+7', Eriki 🟨,
90+7', Perduta I. 🟨,
90+7', Budkivsky P. 🟨,
90+7', Kholod V. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karpaty won 0.

In recent matches, Karpaty has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Zorya is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Karpaty may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Karpaty will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Karpaty won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 16:35. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Karpaty won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.8:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Karpaty Lviv	7	4	2	1	15:5	10	14
9	FK Zorya Luhansk	7	2	2	3	7:11	-4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karpaty Lviv
Ukrainian Premier League
17.05.26	Karpaty Lviv - Veres Rivne	2:0 ✺
12.05.26	Kharkiv - Karpaty Lviv	2:2 ✺
08.05.26	Kryvbas - Karpaty Lviv	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Karpaty Lviv - LNZ Cherkasy	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Rukh Lviv - Karpaty Lviv	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTLTW
- Zorya Luhansk
Ukrainian Premier League
18.05.26	Zorya Luhansk - Polissya Zhytomyr	0:0 ✺
12.05.26	Oleksandriya - Zorya Luhansk	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Zorya Luhansk - Kharkiv	1:1 ✺
04.05.26	Rukh Lviv - Zorya Luhansk	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Zorya Luhansk - Veres Rivne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Premier League
05.12.25	Zorya Luhansk - Karpaty Lviv	1:0
25.05.25	Karpaty Lviv - Zorya Luhansk	1:3
02.12.24	Zorya Luhansk - Karpaty Lviv	2:1
30.11.19	Zorya Luhansk - Karpaty Lviv	2:0
25.08.19	Karpaty Lviv - Zorya Luhansk	0:1
10.11.18	Zorya Luhansk - Karpaty Lviv	2:1
12.08.18	Karpaty Lviv - Zorya Luhansk	0:1

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