Match Info

Premier League - Round 32

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Yevlakh City Stadium (Yevlakh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Karvan		Gabala

	1	X	2
	4.45	3.55	1.65	Watch
	4.52	3.57	1.69
	4.58	3.34	1.76	Watch
	4.6	3.3	1.67
	4.84	3.48	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.6 ↑ (4)	3.45 ↓ (3.48)	1.68 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karvan
19.7%

Draw
26.3%

Gabala
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

26.1%

51.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

25.2%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Gabala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Karvan - Gabala Predictions

Users Predictions: Gabala will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Goncalves Mateus P. L. (G) 17. Abdullayev S. 6. Abdullayev V. (C) 4. Doyeni O. 13. Masimov V. 37. Ngwisani M. 16. Rustamli R. 2. Sno S. 11. Spence K. C. 19. Thompson G. 33. Turabov E.	93. Cafarov R. (G) 27. Ahmadov E. 13. Aliyev N. 50. Ba Loua A. 74. Damadayev S. 33. Keita S. 14. Massoumou D. J. 28. Musayev M. (C) 12. Sangare I. 10. Shahniyarov S. 6. Sierra J.
Substitutes
77. Abdullayev A. 18. Ahmadov S. 25. Bulud A. (G) 14. Cahangirov U. 10. Durrant S. 1. Ibrahimov K. (G) 8. Kings P. 42. Qadirzada I.	1. Agayev S. (G) 3. Eduardo Kunde 94. Hushanov H. (G) 22. Iskandarov F. 26. Mustafayev E. 70. Quimbila P. 21. Shakarkhanov Z.
Coaches
Mammadov F.	Tskhadadze K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Abdullayev V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Abdullayev S. ↓, Cahangirov U. ↑,
47', Doyeni O. 🟨,
54', 1 - 0, Doyeni O. ⚽,
56', 1 - 1, Sangare I. ⚽,
62', Abdullayev V. ↓, Kings P. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Massoumou D. J. ⚽,
68', Massoumou D. J. ↓, Quimbila P. ↑,
76', Sierra J. ↓, Iskandarov F. ↑,
83', Thompson G. ↓, Qadirzada I. ↑,
83', Spence K. C. ↓, Durrant S. ↑,
83', Turabov E. ↓, Abdullayev A. ↑,
90', Sangare I. ↓, Shakarkhanov Z. ↑,
90+4', Iskandarov F. 🟨,

Preview

Karvan is Relegated to I Liqa

Recent performances by Karvan have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gabala is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Gabala is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karvan won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Karvan won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gabala	6	1	1	4	2:7	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karvan FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
10.05.26	Turan Tovuz - Karvan	1:0 ✺
05.05.26	Karvan - Neftchi Baku	0:3 ✺
27.04.26	Sabah - Karvan	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Karvan - Shamakhi	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Karvan - Kapaz	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LLLWW
- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
09.05.26	Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Zira - Gabala	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Gabala - İmişli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
28.02.26	Gabala - Karvan	1:1
15.08.25	Karvan - Gabala	1:1
Azerbaijan First Division
02.05.25	Karvan - Gabala	2:0
28.02.25	Gabala - Karvan	2:0
28.11.24	Karvan - Gabala	0:1

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