Match Info

Super Lig - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu (Istanbul)

Referee: Kayatepe A. D. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	SportKlub 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
Hong-kong	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	Sport 2
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	Sport TV1, Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport 9
Singapore	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Digiturk
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Kasımpaşa		Galatasaray

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.02	3.38	2.23	Watch
	3.2	3.52	2.32
	3.23	3.21	2.32	Watch
	3	3.25	2.25
	3.23	3.47	2.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (5.42)	3.39 ↓ (4.18)	2.26 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Kasımpaşa
30.2%

Draw
27.9%

Galatasaray
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

22.6%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

22.3%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kasımpaşa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kasımpaşa's performance.

Galatasaray has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Galatasaray might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kasımpaşa than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kasımpaşa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Galatasaray than the current prediction. (+18.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Galatasaray could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	46.2%	30.8%

Kasımpaşa - Galatasaray Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Kasımpaşa will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Galatasaray will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Yanar A. (G) 4. Arous A. 50. Rodrigo Becao 20. Opoku N. 22. Corekci K. 16. Baldursson A. F. 71. Kahveci I. C. 8. Cafu (C) 26. Demirbay K. 34. Diabate F. 19. Benedyczak A.	19. Guvenc G. (G) 93. Boey S. 90. Singo W. 91. Unyay A. 17. Elmali E. 23. Ayhan K. 74. Nhaga R. 10. Sane L. 20. Gundogan I. 77. Lang N. 9. Icardi M. (C)
Substitutes
61. Albayrak E. (G) 18. Allevinah J. 5. Aydin E. 29. Aydin T. 12. Ben Ouanes M. 21. Frimpong G. 77. Gueye P. 17. Kanatsizkus K. 11. Kol A. 33. Tasdemir E.	27. Guner C. 4. Jakobs I. 67. Karasu E. C. 68. Kocak F. 21. Kutucu A. 99. Lemina M. 7. Sallai R. 6. Sanchez D. 12. Sen B. (G) 62. Yuzgec A.
Coaches
Belozoglu E.	Buruk O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Benedyczak A. ⚽, Diabate F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Guvenc G. ↓, Sen B. ↑,
60', Nhaga R. ↓, Kutucu A. ↑,
78', Unyay A. ↓, Jakobs I. ↑,
78', Boey S. ↓, Sallai R. ↑,
80', Diabate F. ↓, Ben Ouanes M. ↑,
90+1', Benedyczak A. ↓, Gueye P. ↑,
90+1', Gundogan I. ↓, Yuzgec A. ↑,
90+3', Sane L. ↓, Guner C. ↑,
90+4', Singo W. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Galatasaray is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kasımpaşa won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Galatasaray may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Kasımpaşa: Corekci K. (Yellow Cards) Gianniotis A. (Yellow Cards) Hajradinovic H. (Knee Injury) Tosun C. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Galatasaray: Asprilla Y. (Knee Injury) Baltaci M. (Suspended) Osimhen V. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Kasımpaşa: Winck C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Galatasaray: Gabriel Sara (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kasımpaşa won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 29:46. (average 1.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kasımpaşa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:20. (average 1.8:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Galatasaray	7	5	1	1	16:11	5	16
8	Kasimpasa	7	2	4	1	8:8	0	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kasımpaşa
Turkish Super League
09.05.26	Gençlerbirliği - Kasımpaşa	3:2 ✺
03.05.26	Kasımpaşa - Kocaelispor	1:1 ✺
24.04.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Kasımpaşa	4:0 ✺
19.04.26	Kasımpaşa - Alanyaspor	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Göztepe - Kasımpaşa	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LTLWT
- Galatasaray
Turkish Super League
09.05.26	Galatasaray - Antalyaspor	4:2 ✺
02.05.26	Samsunspor - Galatasaray	4:1 ✺
26.04.26	Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe	3:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
22.04.26	Galatasaray - Gençlerbirliği	0:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
18.04.26	Gençlerbirliği - Galatasaray	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
21.12.25	Galatasaray - Kasımpaşa	3:0
02.03.25	Kasımpaşa - Galatasaray	3:3
28.09.24	Galatasaray - Kasımpaşa	3:3
17.03.24	Kasımpaşa - Galatasaray	3:4
03.11.23	Galatasaray - Kasımpaşa	2:1
11.03.23	Galatasaray - Kasımpaşa	1:0
11.09.22	Kasımpaşa - Galatasaray	2:3

Upcoming Matches