Match Info

Super Lig - Round 16

Date: 12 December 2025, Friday

Location: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu (Istanbul)

Referee: Cakir O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Kasımpaşa		Gençlerbirliği

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.57	Watch
	2.59	3.34	2.64
	2.7	3.35	2.75
	2.48	3.39	2.82	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.7
	2.7	3.42	2.72	Watch
	2.54	3.2	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.07)	3.31 ↓ (3.33)	2.69 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kasımpaşa
36.5%

Draw
28.5%

Gençlerbirliği
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

28.3%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

27.6%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kasımpaşa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kasımpaşa's form might have worsened.

Gençlerbirliği has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gençlerbirliği's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kasımpaşa than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kasımpaşa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gençlerbirliği than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gençlerbirliği, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68%	16%	16%

Kasımpaşa - Gençlerbirliği Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Kasımpaşa will win (votes: 17 - 68%). Gençlerbirliği will win (votes: 4 - 16%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kasımpaşa: 49.7% – 86.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Gençlerbirliği (1.64) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Kasımpaşa (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Kasımpaşa (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kasımpaşa will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Kasımpaşa (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Gençlerbirliği (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gianniotis A. (G) 14. Espinoza J. 20. Opoku N. 4. Arous A. 21. Frimpong G. 6. Ustundag C. 16. Baldursson A. F. 12. Ben Ouanes M. (C) 34. Diabate F. 9. Barasi Y. 77. Gueye P.	24. Velho R. (G) 13. Pereira P. 6. Goutas D. (C) 4. Zuzek Z. 2. Thalisson Kelven 22. Koita S. 15. Dele-Bashiru T. 11. Gurpuz G. 10. Mimaroglu M. 70. Tongya F. 29. Niang M.
Substitutes
29. Aydin T. 7. Fall M. 17. Kanatsizkus K. 98. Kazanci S. (G) 11. Kol A. 5. Mujde A. 41. Szalai At. 33. Tasdemir E. 2. Winck C. 23. Yilmaz O.	16. Ayaz Ozcan F. 17. Csoboth K. 21. Demir D. 77. Dursun A. 18. Erenturk E. (G) 8. Onur S. 7. Onyekuru H. 90. Osmanoglu S. 88. Uzum F. 53. Varesanovic D.
Coaches
Belozoglu E.	Bizati O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Pereira P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Koita S. ↓, Varesanovic D. ↑,
71', Barasi Y. ↓, Fall M. ↑,
74', Espinoza J. ↓, Winck C. ↑,
76', Gurpuz G. ↓, Onur S. ↑,
77', Dele-Bashiru T. 🟨,
81', Niang M. 🟨,
81', Ben Ouanes M. 🟨,
86', Baldursson A. F. 🟨,
87', Diabate F. ↓, Kol A. ↑,
90+2', Mimaroglu M. ↓, Onyekuru H. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kasımpaşa won 3.

Recent form of Kasımpaşa has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gençlerbirliği's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gençlerbirliği may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Kasımpaşa: Albayrak E. (Suspended) Hajradinovic H. (Knee Injury) Yanar A. (Suspended)

There will not play in Gençlerbirliği: Durmaz E. (Suspended) Etebo P. (Muscle Injury) Kyabou M. (Knee Injury) Sahindere A. (Knee Injury) Ulgun O. (Yellow Cards) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Kasımpaşa: Cafu (Injury)

There are questionable in Gençlerbirliği: Akkan G. (Injury) Kemaloglu E. (Knee Injury) Ulgun O. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Kasımpaşa won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:20. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kasımpaşa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kasımpaşa
Turkish Super League
07.12.25	Kocaelispor - Kasımpaşa	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Kasımpaşa - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Alanyaspor - Kasımpaşa	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Kasımpaşa - Göztepe	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Kayserispor - Kasımpaşa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TLWLL
- Gençlerbirliği
Turkish Super League
07.12.25	Gençlerbirliği - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
02.12.25	Sakaryaspor - Gençlerbirliği	0:5 ✺
Turkish Super League
28.11.25	Kocaelispor - Gençlerbirliği	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Galatasaray - Gençlerbirliği	3:2 ✺
07.11.25	Gençlerbirliği - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Cup
19.12.24	Gençlerbirliği - Kasımpaşa	0:1
Turkish Super League
20.03.21	Gençlerbirliği - Kasımpaşa	2:1
29.11.20	Kasımpaşa - Gençlerbirliği	2:0
29.06.20	Gençlerbirliği - Kasımpaşa	0:2
24.11.19	Kasımpaşa - Gençlerbirliği	1:2
12.05.18	Kasımpaşa - Gençlerbirliği	3:1
16.12.17	Gençlerbirliği - Kasımpaşa	0:0

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