Match Info

J1 League - Round 9

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Nagoya Grampus		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.6	2.75	Watch
	2.38	3.4	2.72	Watch
	2.48	3.59	2.85
	2.54	3.57	2.64	Watch
	2.38	3.3	2.7
	2.37	3.63	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.18)	3.52 ↓ (3.53)	2.75 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
39%

Draw
26.7%

Cerezo Osaka
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

26.8%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28.1%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nagoya Grampus, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerezo Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmidt D. (G) 2. Nogami Y. 13. Fujii H. 31. Takamine T. 19. Koda H. 15. Inagaki S. (C) 14. Morishima T. 27. Nakayama K. 7. Izumi R. 22. Kimura Y. 11. Yamagishi Y.	23. Nakamura K. (G) 16. Okuda H. 4. Inoue R. 44. Hatanaka S. 66. Ohata A. 18. Ishiwatari N. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 17. Sakata R. 48. Shibayama M. 11. Thiago Andrade 9. Sakuragawa S.
Substitutes
9. Asano Y. 6. Kawazura A. 33. Kikuchi T. 44. Mori S. 18. Nagai K. 41. Ono M. 35. Pisano A. (G) 30. Sugiura S. 17. Uchida T.	27. Cools D. 19. Homma S. 8. Kagawa S. 5. Kida H. 21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 13. Nakajima M. 6. Noborizato K. 3. Tanaka H. 14. Yokoyama Y.
Coaches
Petrovic M.	Papas A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, Yamagishi Y. ⚽,
49', Inoue R. 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, Yamagishi Y. ⚽, Nakayama K. (A),
54', Sakata R. ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
54', Inoue R. ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
61', 3 - 0, Izumi R. ⚽, Kimura Y. (A),
63', Nakajima M. 🟨,
68', Koda H. ↓, Asano Y. ↑,
68', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Sugiura S. ↑,
73', Shibayama M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
74', Thiago Andrade ↓, Homma S. ↑,
83', Homma S. 🟨,
85', Okuda H. ↓, Cools D. ↑,
89', Nogami Y. ↓, Mori S. ↑,
89', Izumi R. ↓, Ono M. ↑,
90+5', Morishima T. ↓, Uchida T. ↑,
90+7', Kimura Y. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nagoya will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T. (Knee Injury) Mateus (Injury)

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L. (Knee Injury) Takahashi T. (Back Injury) Uejo S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nagoya: Yamagishi Y. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:24. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.5:0.9).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Cerezo Osaka: 1.92% Nagoya Grampus: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3:5	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
22.03.26	Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
18.03.26	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	0:3 ✺
07.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:5 ✺
01.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLWL
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
22.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	2:1 penalties ✺
18.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Kyoto Sanga - Cerezo Osaka	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 penalties ✺
28.02.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
04.10.25	Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka	2:1
08.03.25	Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	1:1
30.06.24	Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	2:1
21.04.24	Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka	2:1
26.08.23	Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	3:1
03.06.23	Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka	3:1
05.11.22	Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	0:1

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