The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Nagoya Grampus 42%
Draw 26.4%
Cerezo Osaka 31.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
34.7%
26.2%
39.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34.9%
26.4%
38.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nagoya Grampus's performance.
Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerezo Osaka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nagoya Grampus that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+7.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerezo Osaka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
63.6%
9.1%
27.3%
Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 35.2% โ 92%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
BTTS - yes (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 3.5 - under (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Schmidt D. (G) 70. Hara T. 3. Sato Y. 31. Takamine T. 7. Izumi R. 15. Inagaki S. (C) 14. Morishima T. 27. Nakayama K. 17. Uchida T. 22. Kimura Y. 18. Nagai K.
23. Nakamura K. (G) 27. Cools D. 97. Takahashi T. 4. Inoue R. 16. Okuda H. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 8. Kagawa S. 15. Hernandez J. 77. Fernandes L. 41. Komi Y. 19. Sabbag P.
Substitutes
33. Kikuchi T. 19. Koda H. 58. Koyamatsu T. 2. Nogami Y. 41. Ono M. 35. Pisano A. (G) 30. Sugiura S. 55. Tokumoto S. 11. Yamagishi Y.
31. Abe K. (G) 45. Nagasoe K. 2. Nakamura T. 6. Noborizato K. 28. Okazawa K. 17. Sakata R. 9. Sakuragawa S. 7. Uejo S. 14. Yokoyama Y.
Coaches
Petrovic M.
Machin P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Nakayama K. ⚽, Uchida T. (A),
26', Cools D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sato Y. 🟨,
49', Kagawa S. 🟨,
59', Morishima T. ↓, Koda H. ↑,
60', Nakayama K. ↓, Koyamatsu T. ↑,
60', Nagai K. ↓, Yamagishi Y. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Sabbag P. ⚽, Fernandes L. (A),
66', Fernandes L. 🟨,
69', Komi Y. ↓, Uejo S. ↑,
70', Uchida T. ↓, Ono M. ↑,
81', Sabbag P. ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
90', Fernandes L. ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
90+4', Okuda H. 🟨,
Preview
A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12th and 13th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 2.
Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.
Cerezo Osaka may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Nagoya has faced a series of away games on the road.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Nagoya: Asano Y.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Marcus Vinicius
(Broken Leg).
Confirmed absences for Cerezo Osaka: Irvine J.
(Yellow Cards)
Kambayashi G.
(Shoulder Injury)
Ohata A.
(Red Card)
Shibayama M.
(Knee Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Nagoya has recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:30 (averaging 1.3:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Nagoya against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 18:10 goals (averaging 1.6:0.9 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
12
Nagoya Grampus
10
4
0
6
12:16
-4
12
13
Cerezo Osaka
10
3
3
4
9:16
-7
12
Outrights of Japan J1 League for now
Cerezo Osaka: 0.97% Nagoya Grampus: 0.78%
Last Results with these Odds
Cerezo Osaka - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.09%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.
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Japan
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Schmidt D. (G) 
Cools D. 
Hernandez J. 
Fernandes L. 
Sabbag P. 
Petrovic M. 
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