Match Info

J1 League - Round 3

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Mercari Stadium (Kashima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kashima Antlers		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.05	3.2	2.28	Watch
	2.71	3.45	2.78
	3.15	3.27	2.33	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.2
	3.07	3.43	2.3	Watch
	2.71	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.7)	3.29 ↓ (3.3)	2.38 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashima Antlers
31.5%

Draw
28.7%

Kashiwa Reysol
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

28.6%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashima Antlers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Kashiwa Reysol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	72.7%	18.2%

Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Kashima will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Kashiwa will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Kashima (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Kashima (1.54) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hayakawa T. (G) 22. Nono K. 55. Ueda N. 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 16. Mizoguchi S. 71. Araki R. 6. Misao K. 14. Higuchi Y. 17. Elber 9. Leo Ceara 40. Suzuki Y.	25. Kojima R. (G) 88. Baba S. 4. Koga T. 2. Mitsumaru H. 32. Yamanouchi Y. 21. Konishi Y. 39. Nakagawa N. 26. Sugioka D. 8. Koizumi Y. 20. Segawa Y. 9. Hosoya M.
Substitutes
77. Cavric A. 13. Chinen K. 24. Hayashu H. 29. Kajikawa Y. (G) 32. Matsumoto H. 7. Ogawa R. 5. Sekigawa I. 10. Shibasaki G. 34. Tokuda H.	13. Inukai T. 18. Kakita Y. 15. Komi Y. 24. Kubo T. 29. Nagai K. (G) 19. Nakama H. 22. Noda H. 28. Toshima S. 87. Yamauchi H.
Coaches
Oniki T.	Rodriguez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Hosoya M. (Penalty Awarded),
35', Nakagawa N. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Leo Ceara ⚽, Suzuki Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mitsumaru H. ↓, Komi Y. ↑,
46', Yamanouchi Y. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Ueda N. ⚽, Higuchi Y. (A),
61', Hosoya M. ↓, Yamauchi H. ↑,
64', Elber ↓, Hayashu H. ↑,
64', Mizoguchi S. ↓, Ogawa R. ↑,
69', Komi Y. 🟨,
73', Koizumi Y. ↓, Nakama H. ↑,
73', Segawa Y. ↓, Kakita Y. ↑,
79', Araki R. ↓, Chinen K. ↑,
86', Leo Ceara ↓, Cavric A. ↑,
86', Suzuki Y. ↓, Tokuda H. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kashima won 3.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Kashima: Anzai K. (Knee Injury) Morooka S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Kashiwa: Harada W. (Red Card) Kumasaka K. (Knee Injury) Tezuka K. (Knee Injury) Watai M. (Knee Injury) Yamada Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Kashiwa: Koizumi Y. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kashima won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:27. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Kashima won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashima Antlers: 13.09% Kashiwa Reysol: 11.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10:4	6	12
2	Kashima Antlers	4	4	0	0	11:6	5	12

Last Results with these Odds

Kashima Antlers - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 35.01%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.35%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
14.02.26	Kashima Antlers - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Tokyo - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties ✺
06.12.25	Kashima Antlers - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Tokyo Verdy - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Kashima Antlers - Yokohama FC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWW
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
15.02.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo Verdy	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashiwa Reysol	5:3 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Kashiwa Reysol - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
06.12.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Machida Zelvia	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Albirex Niigata - Kashiwa Reysol	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
20.07.25	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	3:2
08.03.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	1:3
21.09.24	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	0:0
06.05.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	1:2
11.11.23	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1
Japan J League Cup
24.05.23	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0
Japan J1 League
09.04.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	1:0

Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide