Match Info

J1 League - Round 12

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mercari Stadium (Kashima) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	17:00	Stan Sport
China	14:00	K-Ball
Japan	15:00	DAZN Japan


	Kashima Antlers		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.70	3.10
	2.25	3.40	2.90
	2.18	3.45	2.95	Watch
	2.26	3.66	3.18
	2.29	3.55	2.98	Watch
	2.20	3.60	3.15
	2.09	3.72	3.28	Watch
	2.18	3.60	3.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.38)	3.59 ↑ (3.4)	3.08 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashima Antlers
43%

Draw
26.3%

Kashiwa Reysol
30.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.5%

26.9%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

26.3%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashima Antlers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Kashima will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Kashiwa will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hayakawa T. (G) 23. Tsukui K. 55. Ueda N. 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 7. Ogawa R. 27. Matsumura Y. 10. Shibasaki G. (C) 6. Misao K. 24. Hayashu H. 34. Tokuda H. 40. Suzuki Y.	29. Nagai K. (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Koga T. (C) 26. Sugioka D. 30. Furuya S. 39. Nakagawa N. 28. Toshima S. 5. Endo K. 8. Koizumi Y. 87. Yamauchi H. 18. Kakita Y.
Substitutes
77. Cavric A. 17. Elber 14. Higuchi Y. 25. Koike R. 8. Matheus Bueno 35. Motosuna A. 5. Sekigawa I. 21. Yamada T. (G) 30. Yoshida M.	40. Harakawa R. 9. Hosoya M. 21. Konishi Y. 24. Kubo T. 2. Mitsumaru H. 1. Saruta H. (G) 20. Segawa Y. 32. Yamanouchi Y. 44. Yuba K.
Coaches
Oniki T.	Rodriguez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 1 - 0, Tokuda H. ⚽, Ogawa R. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Endo K. ⚽, Toshima S. (A),
39', Nakagawa N. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Yamauchi H. ⚽, Endo K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tokuda H. ↓, Cavric A. ↑,
46', Kakita Y. ↓, Hosoya M. ↑,
46', Tsukui K. ↓, Koike R. ↑,
51', Furuya S. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
59', 1 - 3, Yamauchi H. ⚽, Nakagawa N. (A),
60', Endo K. ↓, Yuba K. ↑,
60', Yamauchi H. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
62', Shibasaki G. ↓, Matheus Bueno ↑,
62', Hayashu H. ↓, Elber ↑,
78', Ogawa R. ↓, Yoshida M. ↑,
88', 2 - 3, Cavric A. ⚽, Elber (A),
90', Toshima S. ↓, Konishi Y. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 5th and 3rd in the Promotion - AFC Champions League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kashima won 4.

Kashima has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Kashiwa shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Recently, Kashiwa has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Kashima: Anzai K. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Kashiwa: Kumasaka K. (Knee Injury) Okubo T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Tezuka K. (Knee Injury) Yamada Y. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Kashiwa: Baba S. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Kashima has recorded 13 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 36:23 (averaging 1.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kashima against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 17:10 goals (averaging 1.7:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Kashiwa Reysol	10	7	0	3	22:17	5	21
5	Kashima Antlers	10	6	1	3	21:16	5	19

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashiwa Reysol: 12.92% Kashima Antlers: 7.75%

Last Results with these Odds

Kashima Antlers - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.49%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.57%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
21.10.26	Kyoto Sanga - Kashima Antlers	2:2 ✺
17.10.26	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
13.10.26	Cong An Ha Noi - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
09.10.26	Kashima Antlers - Gamba Osaka	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Kashima Antlers - Ventforet Kofu	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWWWW
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
21.10.26	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	0:0 ✺
17.10.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Nagoya Grampus	1:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
14.10.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Thai Port	5:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
09.10.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Vissel Kobe	4:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
03.10.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Gamba Osaka	5:4 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
24.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	0:1
21.02.26	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0
20.07.25	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	3:2
08.03.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	1:3
21.09.24	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	0:0
06.05.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	1:2
11.11.23	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1

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