Match Info

J1 League - Round 34

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Panasonic Stadium Suita (Suita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan, NHK BS1


	Gamba Osaka		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.52	3.4	2.58
	2.79	3.55	2.66
	4.90	3.86	1.66	Watch
	2.56	3.54	2.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.49)	3.53 ↑ (3.45)	2.41 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gamba Osaka
31.7%

Draw
27.7%

Kashiwa Reysol
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

27.2%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

26.4%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gamba Osaka's form might have worsened.

Kashiwa Reysol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kashiwa Reysol's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gamba Osaka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kashiwa Reysol, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Gamba Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Kashiwa will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ichimori J. (G) 3. Handa R. 20. Nakatani S. 2. Fukuoka S. 15. Kishimoto T. 13. Abe S. 16. Suzuki T. 4. Kurokawa K. 51. Mitsuta M. 7. Usami T. 23. Hummet D.	25. Kojima R. (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Koga T. 2. Mitsumaru H. 32. Yamanouchi Y. 28. Toshima S. 39. Nakagawa N. 3. Diego 8. Koizumi Y. 14. Koyamatsu T. 18. Kakita Y.
Substitutes
21. Hatsuse R. 1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 11. Jebali I. 10. Kurata S. 8. Meshino R. 27. Mito R. 5. Miura G. 44. Okunuki K. 17. Yamashita R.	88. Baba S. 40. Harakawa R. 9. Hosoya M. 13. Inukai T. 16. Katayama E. 29. Nagai K. (G) 19. Nakama H. 20. Segawa Y. 26. Sugioka D.
Coaches
Poyatos D.	Rodriguez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
7', 0 - 1, Koizumi Y. ⚽, Yamanouchi Y. (A),
15', 0 - 2, Nakagawa N. ⚽, Diego (A),
19', 0 - 3, Diego ⚽, Koyamatsu T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Kakita Y. ↓, Hosoya M. ↑,
51', 0 - 4, Diego ⚽, Nakagawa N. (A),
56', Usami T. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,
56', Hummet D. ↓, Yamashita R. ↑,
56', Diego ↓, Nakama H. ↑,
56', Toshima S. ↓, Harakawa R. ↑,
64', Mitsumaru H. ↓, Sugioka D. ↑,
66', Kurokawa K. ↓, Hatsuse R. ↑,
66', Kishimoto T. ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
73', 0 - 5, Hosoya M. (Pen),
77', Koizumi Y. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
80', Suzuki T. ↓, Mito R. ↑,
90+2', Harakawa R. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 2.

Gamba Osaka has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Kashiwa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gamba Osaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Araki R. (Inactive) Hayashi D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Kashiwa: Kumasaka K. (Knee Injury) Tezuka K. (Knee Injury) Watai M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:28. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.5:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
05.10.25	Kashima Antlers - Gamba Osaka	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
02.10.25	Ratchaburi - Gamba Osaka	0:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
27.09.25	Gamba Osaka - Albirex Niigata	4:2 ✺
23.09.25	Gamba Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
17.09.25	Gamba Osaka - Eastern AA	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWWW
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J League Cup
12.10.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Kawasaki Frontale	4:1 ✺
08.10.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashiwa Reysol	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
04.10.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashiwa Reysol	4:4 ✺
23.09.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
06.04.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Gamba Osaka	1:0
11.08.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Gamba Osaka	0:0
16.06.24	Gamba Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	2:1
16.07.23	Gamba Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	3:1
18.02.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Gamba Osaka	2:2
01.10.22	Gamba Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	0:0
14.05.22	Kashiwa Reysol - Gamba Osaka	0:1

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