Match Info

J2 League - Round 21

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Toyama Stadium (Toyama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kataller Toyama		JEF United Chiba

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.85	Watch
	3.7	3.25	1.85
				Watch
	4.16	3.57	1.92
				Watch
	3.8	3.2	1.91
	3.9	3.54	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↓ (3.93)	3.43 ↓ (3.48)	1.87 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kataller Toyama
23.8%

Draw
26.9%

JEF United Chiba
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

26.9%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

26.3%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Kataller Toyama have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

JEF United Chiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for JEF United Chiba than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	15.4%	69.2%

Kataller Toyama - JEF United Chiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Kataller Toyama will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). JEF United will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for JEF United: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): JEF United Chiba will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tagawa T. (G) 88. Hama T. 4. Kamiyama K. 5. Imase J. 28. Fuseya S. 33. Takahashi Y. 6. Sera S. 16. Sueki H. 18. Ito T. 10. Matsuda R. 39. Furukawa M.	19. Suarez J. (G) 2. Takahashi I. 24. Toriumi K. 13. Suzuki D. 15. Mae T. 18. Sugiyama N. 44. Shinada M. 4. Taguchi T. 14. Tsubaki N. 20. Ishikawa D. 29. Carlinhos
Substitutes
13. Fukazawa S. 42. Hirao T. (G) 24. Kawai Y. 20. Oyama M. 22. Shiina N. 58. Take H. 40. Takeuchi Y. 14. Ura J. 27. Yoshihira T.	9. Goya H. 17. Hayashi M. 28. Kawano T. 5. Kobayashi Y. 23. Suzuki R. (G) 7. Tanaka K. 26. Ueda Y. 10. Yokoyama A. 11. Yonekura K.
Coaches
Adachi R.	Kobayashi Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Ishikawa D. ↓, Yokoyama A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Matsuda R. ↓, Yoshihira T. ↑,
52', Furukawa M. ↓, Take H. ↑,
66', Sugiyama N. ↓, Hayashi M. ↑,
66', Tsubaki N. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
68', Sera S. ↓, Kawai Y. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Yoshihira T. ⚽, Take H. (A),
78', Carlinhos ↓, Goya H. ↑,
78', Taguchi T. ↓, Yonekura K. ↑,
86', Ito T. ↓, Takeuchi Y. ↑,
86', Sueki H. ↓, Shiina N. ↑,
89', Shinada M. 🟨,
90+2', Fuseya S. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, JEF United is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kataller Toyama won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kataller Toyama won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

JEF United Chiba - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.37%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kataller Toyama
Japan J2 League
21.06.25	Iwaki - Kataller Toyama	3:1 ✺
15.06.25	Kataller Toyama - Fujieda MYFC	0:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Vegalta Sendai - Kataller Toyama	0:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
08.06.25	Kataller Toyama - Mito HollyHock	0:1 ✺
31.05.25	Blaublitz Akita - Kataller Toyama	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWLT
- JEF United Chiba
Japan J2 League
21.06.25	JEF United Chiba - Júbilo Iwata	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	Tokushima Vortis - JEF United Chiba	3:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	JEF United Chiba - Roasso Kumamoto	1:2 penalties ✺
Japan J2 League
31.05.25	JEF United Chiba - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:0 ✺
25.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Kataller Toyama - JEF United Chiba	4:2
Japan J2 League
22.02.25	JEF United Chiba - Kataller Toyama	2:0
15.11.14	JEF United Chiba - Kataller Toyama	2:1
20.04.14	Kataller Toyama - JEF United Chiba	1:1

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