Match Info

League One - Round 24

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Links Park (Montrose)


	Montrose		Kelty Hearts

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	3.7
	1.88	3.4	3.8
	1.91	3.54	3.88
	1.92	3.52	3.76	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.8
	1.81	3.38	3.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.86)	3.4 ↓ (3.41)	3.82 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montrose
49.1%

Draw
27%

Kelty Hearts
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

27.2%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

26.9%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montrose has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Kelty Hearts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montrose than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Montrose - Kelty Hearts Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kelty Hearts (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sharp H. (G) 2. Williamson R. 4. Quinn A. 3. Steeves A. (C) 12. Freeman K. 15. Stevenson G. 8. Sandilands C. 23. Gibson L. 11. Lyons B. 9. Loudon E. 10. Sutherland T.	46. Gourlay K. (G) 12. Fisher S. 35. Brydon J. 20. Corr D. 3. Paterson B. 15. Clay C. (C) 6. Ferguson A. 18. Pettifer A. 7. Moore L. 24. Cooper C. 17. McCarvel L.
Substitutes
20. Bertie K. 22. Brown C. 21. Campbell M. (G) 18. Clelland A. 14. Dillon S. 6. Masson T. 16. Mochrie A. 5. Waddell K. 7. Webster G.	21. Adamson R. (G) 8. Arnott A. 26. Cunningham R. 14. Graham J. 30. Leitch G. 10. Murray I. 2. Thomas M. 27. Wyllie J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Ferguson A. 🟨,
42', Fisher S. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Loudon E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Cooper C. ↓, Cunningham R. ↑,
56', Pettifer A. ↓, Murray I. ↑,
61', Brydon J. 🟨,
64', Sutherland T. ↓, Waddell K. ↑,
64', Stevenson G. ↓, Brown C. ↑,
69', Waddell K. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Moore L. ⚽, Murray I. (A),
75', Gibson L. ↓, Webster G. ↑,
75', Ferguson A. ↓, Graham J. ↑,
85', Freeman K. 🟨,
86', Williamson R. ↓, Masson T. ↑,
86', Loudon E. ↓, Clelland A. ↑,
89', Steeves A. 🟨,
90+2', Paterson B. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montrose won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Montrose may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Montrose is seen as the favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Montrose won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:15. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Montrose won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.6:1.5).

Outrights of Scottish League One for now

Kelty Hearts: 5.2% Montrose: 1.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Montrose	9	5	0	4	13:14	-1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Kelty Hearts - the odds 4.05 are the expected chance of winning is 22.91%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montrose FC
Scottish League One
28.02.26	Hamilton Academical - Montrose	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Montrose - Queen of the South	3:2 ✺
17.02.26	Cove Rangers - Montrose	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Stenhousemuir - Montrose	2:2 ✺
10.02.26	Montrose - Peterhead	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWLTT
- Kelty Hearts
Scottish League One
28.02.26	Kelty Hearts - Inverness	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Cove Rangers - Kelty Hearts	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Kelty Hearts - Peterhead	1:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
07.02.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Kelty Hearts	2:0 ✺
Scottish League One
31.01.26	Kelty Hearts - Hamilton Academical	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
06.12.25	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:3
09.08.25	Montrose - Kelty Hearts	1:2
08.03.25	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:0
04.01.25	Montrose - Kelty Hearts	0:0
19.10.24	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:2
03.08.24	Montrose - Kelty Hearts	1:1
27.04.24	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:2

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