Match Info

Division 1 - Round 29

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: Mounthawk Park (Tralee)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	LOI TV


	Kerry		Treaty United

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.20	3.40
	1.96	3.35	3.25
	1.98	3.53	3.83
	1.93	3.42	3.6	Watch
	1.94	3.50	3.75
	1.90	3.40	3.59
	1.94	3.20	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.01)	3.37 ↑ (3.33)	3.55 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kerry
47.1%

Draw
27.1%

Treaty United
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

27.6%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

26.6%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kerry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Treaty United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kerry than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Treaty United than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Kerry - Treaty United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Connor M. (G) 3. O'Connell S. 14. Hakkinen J. 18. Aladesanusi S. 29. Lee E. 24. Borden V. 28. Brookwell N. 34. Keane R. 41. Bargary C. 7. McGrath S. (C) 10. Murphy C.	1. Brady J. (C) 44. Cantwell K. 3. Lynch B. 27. Lynch R. 6. Healy S. 8. Conroy C. 15. Feeney B. 31. Manning R. 18. Oyenuga J. 19. Cunningham B. 20. Nwankwo D.
Substitutes
17. Brosnan C. 51. Campbell C. 44. Halwax H. (G) 35. Healy A. 38. Healy C. 37. McCormack C. 23. Perez R.	11. Byrne M. 21. Fitzpatrick K. (G) 29. Foley K. 37. Kareem D. 30. Murphy M. 5. Regan B. 25. Walsh M. 36. Whelan C. 16. Yoro E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', Manning R. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, McGrath S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', Conroy C. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,
54', Oyenuga J. ↓, Kareem D. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Manning R. ⚽,
66', Keane R. ↓, Perez R. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Perez R. ⚽,
69', Nwankwo D. 🟨,
71', Nwankwo D. 🟥,
72', McGrath S. 🟨,
76', 3 - 1, Brookwell N. ⚽,
77', McGrath S. ↓, Healy A. ↑,
78', Brady J. 🟨,
80', Healy S. ↓, Regan B. ↑,
80', Feeney B. ↓, Walsh M. ↑,
90', Bargary C. ↓, Brosnan C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kerry won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Treaty United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kerry might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Kerry won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:27. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Kerry won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Kerry	34	13	9	12	42:40	2	48
9	Treaty United	34	9	9	16	33:52	-19	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kerry FC Ireland
Irish Division 1
21.08.26	Kerry - University College Dublin	1:1 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
15.08.26	Sligo Rovers - Kerry	4:0 ✺
Irish Division 1
07.08.26	Cork City - Kerry	3:1 ✺
03.08.26	Kerry - Cobh Ramblers	3:0 ✺
31.07.26	Bray Wanderers - Kerry	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TLLWW
- Treaty United
Irish Division 1
21.08.26	Treaty United - Cork City	2:2 ✺
07.08.26	Cobh Ramblers - Treaty United	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	University College Dublin - Treaty United	1:2 ✺
31.07.26	Treaty United - Longford Town	0:1 ✺
24.07.26	Treaty United - Athlone Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
03.07.26	Treaty United - Kerry	2:1
17.04.26	Kerry - Treaty United	1:1
06.03.26	Treaty United - Kerry	2:2
Club Friendly
13.01.26	Kerry - Treaty United	2:4
Irish Division 1
26.09.25	Kerry - Treaty United	1:1
04.08.25	Treaty United - Kerry	1:1
09.05.25	Kerry - Treaty United	1:0

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