Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 10

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Exbud Arena (Kielce)

Referee: Arys K. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Korona Kielce		Lechia Gdańsk

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.5	3.6	Watch
	1.92	3.5	3.65
	2.02	3.62	3.88
	1.34	4.91	8.87	Watch
	1.93	3.52	3.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.79)	3.81 ↓ (3.95)	4.78 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Korona Kielce
53.8%

Draw
25.7%

Lechia Gdańsk
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

23.9%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

23.5%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Lechia Gdańsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Korona Kielce - Lechia Gdańsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Korona will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Lechia will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Korona: 40% – 93.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Korona (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Korona Kielce will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Korona (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dziekonski X. (G) 24. Smolarczyk B. 44. Sotiriou K. 5. Resta P. 26. Popov V. 8. Remacle M. 88. Svetlin T. 6. Pieczek M. 71. Dlugosz W. 70. Antonin 7. Blanik D. (C)	18. Paulsen A. (G) 2. Kludka B. 15. Dyachuk M. 80. Rodin M. 23. Kalahur M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 99. Neugebauer T. 7. Viunnyk B. 89. Bobcek T. 90. Kurminowski D.
Substitutes
9. Davidovic S. 27. Kaminski W. 87. Mamla R. (G) 3. Matuszewski K. 11. Nikolov V. 15. Niski N. 10. Nono 23. Rubezic S. 13. Strzebonski M. 37. Zwozny H.	72. Awad M. 26. Brzek B. 8. Cirkovic A. 16. Jaunzems A. 3. Olsson E. 79. Sezonienko K. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 1. Weirauch S. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T.
Coaches
Zielinski J.	Carver J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Dlugosz W. ⚽, Pieczek M. (A),
44', Mena C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Viunnyk B. ↓, Cirkovic A. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Dlugosz W. ⚽, Blanik D. (A),
64', Bobcek T. ↓, Awad M. ↑,
72', Resta P. 🟨,
76', Blanik D. ↓, Matuszewski K. ↑,
76', Pieczek M. ↓, Nono ↑,
77', Nono 🟨,
79', Kalahur M. 🟥,
81', Kurminowski D. ↓, Olsson E. ↑,
86', Dlugosz W. ↓, Davidovic S. ↑,
87', 3 - 0, Remacle M. ⚽,
90', Neugebauer T. ↓, Szczepankiewicz B. ↑,
90', Mena C. ↓, Sezonienko K. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Korona won 2.

Korona has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lechia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Korona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Korona is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Lechia: Pllana B. (Inactive) Sarnavskyi B. (Knee Injury) Tsarenko A. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Korona won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Korona won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.4:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Korona Kielce
Polish Cup
23.09.25	Stal Rzeszów - Korona Kielce	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.25	Arka Gdynia - Korona Kielce	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Korona Kielce - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Korona Kielce	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTWWW
- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Gdańsk	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Lechia Gdańsk	3:4 ✺
12.09.25	Lechia Gdańsk - GKS Katowice	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
11.05.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Korona Kielce	3:2
09.11.24	Korona Kielce - Lechia Gdańsk	0:0
18.02.23	Korona Kielce - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0
06.08.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Korona Kielce	0:1
01.03.20	Korona Kielce - Lechia Gdańsk	1:2
21.09.19	Lechia Gdańsk - Korona Kielce	2:0
16.02.19	Korona Kielce - Lechia Gdańsk	0:0

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