Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Piszczelok M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Arka Gdynia		Korona Kielce

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.3	Watch
	2.88	3.3	2.35
	3.07	3.29	2.45
	3.06	2.47	3.01	Watch
	3.03	3.43	2.32	Watch
	2.22	3.45	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.24)	3.22 ↓ (3.55)	2.55 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
33.1%

Draw
29.5%

Korona Kielce
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

26.3%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

27%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arka Gdynia's form might have worsened.

Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Korona Kielce's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arka Gdynia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Korona Kielce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

Arka Gdynia - Korona Kielce Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Arka will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Korona will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Korona: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Korona (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Korona (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Korona (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Korona Kielce will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Korona (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (C) 23. Hermoso K. 29. Marcjanik M. 4. Zator D. 2. Navarro M. 10. Nguiamba A. 35. Jakubczyk K. 11. Kocyla D. 37. Kerk S. 27. Oliveira J. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D.	1. Dziekonski X. (G) 24. Smolarczyk B. 5. Resta P. 6. Pieczek M. 71. Dlugosz W. 8. Remacle M. 88. Svetlin T. 3. Matuszewski K. 10. Nono (C) 70. Antonin 7. Blanik D.
Substitutes
33. Abramowicz D. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 22. Percan 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 31. Rusyn N. 8. Sidibe A. 7. Sobczak S. 21. Szysz P.	9. Davidovic S. 27. Kaminski W. 87. Mamla R. (G) 11. Nikolov V. 15. Niski N. 26. Popov V. 23. Rubezic S. 44. Sotiriou K. 13. Strzebonski M. 37. Zwozny H.
Coaches
Szwarga D.	Zielinski J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Jakubczyk K. 🟨,
25', Nguiamba A. 🟨,
43', Nono 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nono ↓, Davidovic S. ↑,
63', Kerk S. ↓, Szysz P. ↑,
63', Oliveira J. ↓, Rusyn N. ↑,
77', Antonin ↓, Nikolov V. ↑,
77', Remacle M. ↓, Strzebonski M. ↑,
77', Kocyla D. ↓, Predenkiewicz M. ↑,
77', Nguiamba A. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
80', Smolarczyk B. 🟨,
83', Hermoso K. 🟨,
84', Zator D. ↓, Abramowicz D. ↑,
90+3', Blanik D. ↓, Niski N. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arka won 3.

Recent performances by Arka have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Korona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Arka: Celestine J. (Yellow Cards) Gojny D. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Arka won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:14. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Arka won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.09.25	Widzew Łódź - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	GKS Katowice - Arka Gdynia	4:1 ✺
09.08.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLLW
- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.09.25	Korona Kielce - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Korona Kielce	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
08.08.25	Korona Kielce - Radomiak Radom	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
23.04.22	Korona Kielce - Arka Gdynia	1:2
08.10.21	Arka Gdynia - Korona Kielce	0:0
29.05.21	Korona Kielce - Arka Gdynia	3:3
03.12.20	Arka Gdynia - Korona Kielce	1:0
Polish Cup
04.11.20	Arka Gdynia - Korona Kielce	2:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.07.20	Korona Kielce - Arka Gdynia	1:1
06.12.19	Korona Kielce - Arka Gdynia	0:1

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