Match Info

III Liga - Group IV - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Korona Kielce 2		Chełmianka Chełm

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.6	2.15
	2.68	3.65	2.15
	2.44	3.6	2.4
	1.00	11.92	15.00	Watch
	2.44	3.62	2.36	Watch
	2.75	3.7	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.37)	5.02 ↑ (3.63)	4.38 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Korona Kielce 2
50.2%

Draw
23.2%

Chełmianka Chełm
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

24.9%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

25.1%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Korona Kielce 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Korona Kielce 2's performance.

Chełmianka Chełm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chełmianka Chełm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce 2 than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Korona Kielce 2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chełmianka Chełm than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chełmianka Chełm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Korona Kielce 2 - Chełmianka Chełm Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Cichocki P. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Minuczyc K. ⚽,
45', 2 - 1, Minuczyc K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
68', 3 - 1, Nojszewski J. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Korona 2 won 1.

Korona 2 has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chełmianka is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chełmianka might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Korona 2 won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Korona 2 won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Korona Kielce 2
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
27.09.25	Naprzód Jędrzejów - Korona Kielce 2	1:4 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Korona Kielce 2 - Piast Gliwice	0:1 ✺
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
19.09.25	Korona Kielce 2 - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Star Starachowice - Korona Kielce 2	3:2 ✺
06.09.25	Siarka Tarnobrzeg - Korona Kielce 2	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLL
- Chełmianka Chełm
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
28.09.25	Chełmianka Chełm - Sparta Kazimierza Wielka	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów - Chełmianka Chełm	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Chełmianka Chełm - Avia Świdnik	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Świdniczanka Świdnik - Chełmianka Chełm	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Chełmianka Chełm - Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group IV
16.05.25	Chełmianka Chełm - Korona Kielce 2	1:2
19.10.24	Korona Kielce 2 - Chełmianka Chełm	2:4
20.05.23	Korona Kielce 2 - Chełmianka Chełm	3:3
15.10.22	Chełmianka Chełm - Korona Kielce 2	0:0
22.05.21	Korona Kielce 2 - Chełmianka Chełm	0:1
28.11.20	Chełmianka Chełm - Korona Kielce 2	3:4
08.09.19	Korona Kielce 2 - Chełmianka Chełm	2:0

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