Match Info

Division 1 - Round 33

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Municipal Stadium Sebastiana Karpiniuka (Kolobrzeg)

Referee: Sulikowski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Kotwica Kołobrzeg		Pogoń Siedlce

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.1
	2.65	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.81	3.3	2.69
	2.74	3.17	2.6	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.1
	2.76	3.26	2.5	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (3.11)	3.25 ↓ (3.27)	2.71 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
36.4%

Draw
28.9%

Pogoń Siedlce
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

28.6%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

27.7%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kotwica Kołobrzeg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kotwica Kołobrzeg's performance.

Pogoń Siedlce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pogoń Siedlce might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kotwica Kołobrzeg than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kotwica Kołobrzeg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pogoń Siedlce could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Pogoń Siedlce Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pogoń Siedlce (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Pogoń Siedlce (1.93) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Pogoń Siedlce (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Pogoń Siedlce (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Koziol M. (G) 45. Favorov D. 27. Welna T. 10. Cywinski M. 15. Kurowski M. 29. Perez J. 8. Ramos L. 6. Kort K. 32. Musolitin M. 16. Sadovski U. 9. Kozlowski F.	57. Lemanowicz J. (G) 17. Misiak P. 5. Jakubik D. 6. Flis M. 55. Cassio 19. Zielonka N. 4. Drag M. 7. Szuprytowski D. 2. Mis K. 13. Podlinski K. 21. Famulak M.
Substitutes
28. Cucos C. 22. Kostevych V. 1. Krzepisz K. (G) 19. Lasek M. 7. Nawate Y. 83. Trojnarski A. 17. Zietek L.	39. Bykowski M. 71. Danielewicz K. 56. Demianiuk C. 31. Dzieciol E. 11. Majewski M. 12. Milasius T. 77. Pik D. 10. Pyrdol P. 95. Topor E. (G)
Coaches
Tworek P.	Nocon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Drag M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Welna T. 🟨,
65', 0 - 1, Mis K. ⚽,
66', Podlinski K. 🟨,
78', Kort K. ↓, Kostevych V. ↑,
80', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Dzieciol E. ↑,
80', Zielonka N. ↓, Bykowski M. ↑,
84', Kurowski M. ↓, Zietek L. ↑,
89', Drag M. ↓, Danielewicz K. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Perez J. ⚽, Zietek L. (A),
90+3', Famulak M. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Recent performances by Kotwica Kołobrzeg have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pogoń Siedlce is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Kotwica Kołobrzeg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kotwica Kołobrzeg won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:8. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Kotwica Kołobrzeg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Polish Division 1
11.05.25	Odra Opole - Kotwica Kołobrzeg	4:2 ✺
05.05.25	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Chrobry Głogów	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Warta Poznań - Kotwica Kołobrzeg	0:1 ✺
22.04.25	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Ruch Chorzów	3:4 ✺
13.04.25	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Miedź Legnica	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 LWWLT
- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
10.05.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Miedź Legnica	3:0 ✺
02.05.25	Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Siedlce	1:3 ✺
26.04.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Arka Gdynia	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Wisła Kraków - Pogoń Siedlce	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Znicz Pruszków	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
08.11.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Kotwica Kołobrzeg	2:1
Polish Division 2
05.04.24	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2
23.09.23	Pogoń Siedlce - Kotwica Kołobrzeg	3:3
04.06.23	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Pogoń Siedlce	1:1
29.10.22	Pogoń Siedlce - Kotwica Kołobrzeg	0:0

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