Match Info

BULGARIA: Parva liga - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2024, Friday

Location: Nikola Shterev - Starika Sports Complex (Plovdiv)

Referee: Dimitrov D. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 4
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Montenegro	Sportklub 4
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 4
Slovenia	SportKlub 5


	Krumovgrad		CSKA 1948 Sofia

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.45	Watch
	3	2.85	2.4
	3	2.9	2.5	Watch
	3.21	2.94	2.52
	3.14	2.99	2.43	Watch
	3.11	3	2.44	Watch
	3	2.9	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (3.28)	2.95 ↓ (3.22)	2.46 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Krumovgrad
30.5%

Draw
31.6%

CSKA 1948 Sofia
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

29.2%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

28.6%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Krumovgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

CSKA 1948 Sofia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Krumovgrad than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA 1948 Sofia than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CSKA 1948 Sofia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Krumovgrad - CSKA 1948 Sofia Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Krumovgrad will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). CSKA 1948 will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for CSKA 1948: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Georgiev Y. (G) 24. Marin L. 4. Lucas Santana 5. Simic M. 2. Ali D. 44. Katsarov B. (C) 13. Diego Raposo 7. Tsvetanov M. 10. Yusein S. 9. Rafael Furtado 70. Matheus Souza	1. Marinov P. (G) 30. Acheampong C. 14. Ivanov T. 91. Bidounga R. 2. Johnathan 28. Piscevic N. 21. Tsenov E. 9. Karagaren B. 7. Thalis 10. Kirilov R. (C) 25. Serdyuk Y.
Substitutes
22. Dost E. 11. Georgiev A. 99. Guermouche Y. 21. Makendzhiev B. (G) 19. Milev N. 14. Popov S. 25. Rabotov S. 91. Velev V. 77. Yusein O.	77. Alexandrov S. 58. Boychev M. 33. Bozhev A. (G) 11. Cassiano 22. Daskalov R. 5. Georgiev A. 6. Iliev R. 61. Octavio 34. Vitanov P.
Coaches
Ribarski A.	Iliev V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Yusein S. ⚽,
20', Tsenov E. 🟨,
26', Katsarov B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tsenov E. ↓, Vitanov P. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Serdyuk Y. (Pen),
73', Rafael Furtado ↓, Milev N. ↑,
73', Tsvetanov M. ↓, Georgiev A. ↑,
79', Katsarov B. ↓, Dost E. ↑,
79', Matheus Souza ↓, Guermouche Y. ↑,
81', Karagaren B. ↓, Alexandrov S. ↑,
86', Vitanov P. 🟨,
87', Piscevic N. ↓, Daskalov R. ↑,
88', Milev N. ↓, Yusein O. ↑,
90+1', Thalis ↓, Cassiano ↑,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Parva liga (Conference League Group: )).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Krumovgrad won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0 (average 2:0).

Including matches at home between the teams Krumovgrad won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Krumovgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
28.09.24	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Krumovgrad	0:2 ✺
23.09.24	Krumovgrad - Botev Vratsa	3:0 ✺
15.09.24	Krumovgrad - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:3 ✺
31.08.24	Krumovgrad - Septemvri Sofia	2:0 ✺
26.08.24	Cherno More Varna - Krumovgrad	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWLWL
- CSKA 1948 Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
29.09.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Botev Plovdiv	0:1 ✺
25.09.24	Septemvri Sofia - CSKA 1948 Sofia	1:1 ✺
19.09.24	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - CSKA 1948 Sofia	0:2 ✺
15.09.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Levski Sofia	2:4 ✺
30.08.24	Botev Vratsa - CSKA 1948 Sofia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.12.23	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Krumovgrad	0:3
14.08.23	Krumovgrad - CSKA 1948 Sofia	1:0

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