Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Vare Areena (Kuopio)

Referee: Spasjonnikovs V. (Lat)


	KuPS Kuopio		Milsami Orhei

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.75	8.5	Watch
	1.4	4.5	7.75
	1.39	4.25	7.9	Watch
	1.31	5.3	8.9
				Watch
	1.36	4.2	8.5
	1.41	4.51	9.1	Watch
	1.35	4.7	8.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.38)	4.6 ↑ (4.1)	8.42 ↑ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KuPS Kuopio
68.6%

Draw
20.3%

Milsami Orhei
11.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

22.3%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

21.8%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KuPS Kuopio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Milsami Orhei has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KuPS Kuopio than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Milsami Orhei aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84%	8%	8%

KuPS Kuopio - Milsami Orhei Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - no (votes: 5 - 71.4%) .

AH +1.25 - Milsami (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: KuPS Kuopio will win (20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.42% – 98.24%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): KuPS Kuopio will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. KuPS (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Milsami (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kreidl J. (G) 6. Savolainen S. 15. Cisse I. 16. Miettinen S. 25. Antwi C. 13. Oksanen J. 10. Arifi D. 21. Luyeye-Lutumba J. 34. Ruoppi O. 8. Pennanen P. (C) 11. Sadiku A.	1. Timbur E. (G) 29. Asmelash H. 4. Koy Lupano D. 22. Jardan V. 30. Takyi F. 5. Nwaeze C. 25. Khali N. 18. Yoda A. 10. Ginsari R. (C) 27. Keita S. 28. Kalabatama K.
Substitutes
24. Armah B. 12. Hakala A. (G) 22. Hamalainen N. 17. Heinonen A. 23. Lotjonen A. 26. Salo R. 18. Tanninen E. 20. Toure M. 7. Voutilainen J.	17. Arhirii I. 11. Chele S. 31. Dujmovic F. (G) 6. Ghimp I. 7. Lisu D. 12. Vornic D. (G)
Coaches
Wiss J.	Picusceac I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Keita S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Keita S. ↓, Chele S. ↑,
65', Luyeye-Lutumba J. ↓, Toure M. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Ruoppi O. ⚽,
74', Sadiku A. ↓, Heinonen A. ↑,
74', Pennanen P. ↓, Voutilainen J. ↑,
77', Yoda A. ↓, Lisu D. ↑,
82', Asmelash H. 🟨,
84', Oksanen J. 🟨,
89', Asmelash H. ↓, Arhirii I. ↑,
89', Khali N. ↓, Ghimp I. ↑,
89', Antwi C. ↓, Hamalainen N. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

KuPS is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Milsami has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Milsami may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, KuPS is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, KuPS won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, KuPS won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KuPS Kuopio
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.25	Oulu - KuPS Kuopio	2:2 ✺
01.07.25	KuPS Kuopio - Gnistan	6:2 ✺
27.06.25	KuPS Kuopio - HJK	3:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
24.06.25	Haka - KuPS Kuopio	1:2 penalties ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.06.25	IFK Mariehamn - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWWWL
- Milsami Orhei
Moldovan Super Liga
05.07.25	Milsami Orhei - Sheriff Tiraspol	1:2 ✺
28.06.25	Politehnica UTM - Milsami Orhei	0:3 ✺
21.06.25	Milsami Orhei - Zimbru Chişinău	3:0 ✺
Moldovan Cup
24.05.25	Milsami Orhei - Sheriff Tiraspol	1:2 ✺
Moldovan Super Liga
18.05.25	Sheriff Tiraspol - Milsami Orhei	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
28.07.22	Milsami Orhei - KuPS Kuopio	1:4
21.07.22	KuPS Kuopio - Milsami Orhei	2:2

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