Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Vare Areena (Kuopio)

Referee: Berke B. (Hun)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	KuPS TV
Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV


	KuPS Kuopio		RFS

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.6	2.75	Watch
	2.2	3.5	2.95
	2.38	3.55	2.72	Watch
	2.41	3.69	2.75
	2.38	3.47	2.81	Watch
	2.15	3.3	2.9
	2.46	3.64	2.81	Watch
	2.11	3.68	3.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.15)	3.55 ↓ (3.73)	2.87 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KuPS Kuopio
40.8%

Draw
26.4%

RFS
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

25.9%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

26.9%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KuPS Kuopio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

RFS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KuPS Kuopio than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RFS than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	14.8%	11.1%

KuPS Kuopio - RFS Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. KuPS will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). RFS will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for KuPS: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. KuPS (votes: 9 - 64.3%). RFS (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - RFS (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 9 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - KuPS (1.41) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.50) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. KuPS (votes: 11 - 64.7%). RFS (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kreidl J. (G) 6. Savolainen S. 15. Cisse I. 16. Miettinen S. 24. Armah B. 13. Oksanen J. 10. Arifi D. 7. Voutilainen J. 34. Ruoppi O. 20. Toure M. 8. Pennanen P. (C)	35. Maric M. (G) 11. Savalnieks R. 4. Veips R. 43. Lipuscek Z. (C) 2. Filipovic A. 81. Rakic S. 26. Panic S. 71. Diedhiou B. 18. Zelenkovs D. 70. Talla M. 9. Ikaunieks D.
Substitutes
12. Hakala A. (G) 21. Luyeye-Lutumba J. 9. Parzyszek P. 4. Ricardo P. 11. Sadiku A. 30. Sahimaa L. 26. Salo R. 28. Seidu S. 32. Tikkanen R.	32. Facu 49. Kigurs M. 22. Lemajic D. 25. Mares P. 16. Nerugals J. (G) 30. Njie H. 77. Porsan Clemente J. 21. Stuglis E. 13. Vilkovs S. (G) 37. Wouter T.
Coaches
Wiss J.	Morozs V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Veips R. 🟨,
10', Oksanen J. 🟨,
13', Armah B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Veips R. ↓, Njie H. ↑,
46', Voutilainen J. ↓, Luyeye-Lutumba J. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Pennanen P. ⚽, Ruoppi O. (A),
53', Ikaunieks D. ↓, Lemajic D. ↑,
53', Rakic S. ↓, Porsan Clemente J. ↑,
65', Diedhiou B. ↓, Kigurs M. ↑,
80', Filipovic A. ↓, Stuglis E. ↑,
81', Lipuscek Z. 🟨,
81', Arifi D. 🟨,
84', Toure M. ↓, Parzyszek P. ↑,
87', Pennanen P. ↓, Ricardo P. ↑,
90+6', Miettinen S. ↓, Sahimaa L. ↑,
90+8', Kreidl J. ↓, Hakala A. ↑,
90+10', Panic S. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 2-1. 2nd leg.

KuPS is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

RFS has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

KuPS could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, KuPS won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KuPS Kuopio
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.25	KTP Kotka - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.25	RFS - KuPS Kuopio	1:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.08.25	KuPS Kuopio - Haka	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.07.25	Kairat - KuPS Kuopio	3:0 ✺
22.07.25	KuPS Kuopio - Kairat	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWLW
- FK RFS
Latvian Virsliga
10.08.25	RFS - Super Nova	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.25	RFS - KuPS Kuopio	1:2 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
03.08.25	Grobiņa - RFS	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.07.25	Malmö - RFS	1:0 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
26.07.25	RFS - Tukums 2000	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
06.08.25	RFS - KuPS Kuopio	1:2

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