Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Vare Areena (Kuopio)

Referee: Ruiz A. (Esp)


	KuPS Kuopio		Kairat

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.9	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.58	2.92	2.92	Watch
	2.62	2.97	2.92
	2.60	2.77	3.14	Watch
	2.62	2.9	2.8
	2.62	3.01	3.06	Watch
	2.34	3.11	2.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.48)	2.97 ↓ (3.3)	2.92 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

KuPS Kuopio
36.6%

Draw
31.4%

Kairat
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

29.1%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

30.5%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KuPS Kuopio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Kairat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KuPS Kuopio than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68%	16%	16%

KuPS Kuopio - Kairat Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. KuPS will win (votes: 16 - 69.6%). Kairat will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for KuPS: 50.8% – 88.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. KuPS (votes: 4 - 40%). Kairat (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - KuPS (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - KuPS (1.71) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - KuPS (1.39) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. KuPS (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Kairat (votes: 6 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kreidl J. (G) 6. Savolainen S. 15. Cisse I. 16. Miettinen S. 22. Hamalainen N. 34. Ruoppi O. 13. Oksanen J. 10. Arifi D. 21. Luyeye-Lutumba J. 20. Toure M. 8. Pennanen P. (C)	1. Zarutskiy A. (G) 24. Mrynskiy A. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 80. Sorokin E. 3. Mata L. 20. Tapalov E. 18. Glazer D. 4. Kasabulat D. 55. Gromyko V. 26. Edmilson Santos 7. Jorginho
Substitutes
24. Armah B. 12. Hakala A. (G) 17. Heinonen A. 23. Lotjonen A. 11. Sadiku A. 30. Sahimaa L. 32. Tikkanen R. 7. Voutilainen J.	77. Anarbekov T. (G) 15. Arad O. 89. Bagdat R. 17. Baybek O. 44. Gadrani L. 99. Ricardinho 6. Sadybekov A. 9. Satpaev D. 25. Shirobokov A. 10. Zaria G.
Coaches
Wiss J.	Urazbakhtin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Oksanen J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Toure M. ⚽, Luyeye-Lutumba J. (A),
65', Edmilson Santos ↓, Satpaev D. ↑,
65', Kasabulat D. ↓, Arad O. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Oksanen J. ⚽, Savolainen S. (A),
73', Jorginho ↓, Zaria G. ↑,
73', Gromyko V. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
74', Toure M. ↓, Voutilainen J. ↑,
74', Luyeye-Lutumba J. ↓, Sadiku A. ↑,
82', Pennanen P. ↓, Heinonen A. ↑,
84', Glazer D. 🟨,
90+3', Ruoppi O. ↓, Armah B. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KuPS Kuopio
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.07.25	VPS Vaasa - KuPS Kuopio	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.25	Milsami Orhei - KuPS Kuopio	0:0 ✺
08.07.25	KuPS Kuopio - Milsami Orhei	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.25	Oulu - KuPS Kuopio	2:2 ✺
01.07.25	KuPS Kuopio - Gnistan	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTWTW
- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
19.07.25	Kairat - Kaisar	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.25	Kairat - Olimpija Ljubljana	2:0 ✺
08.07.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Kairat	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
04.07.25	Kairat - Turan Turkistan	4:0 ✺
29.06.25	Ordabasy - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 TWTWW

Upcoming Matches