Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 25

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Kuressaare Linnastaadion (Kuressaare)

Referee: Frischer J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Kuressaare		Pärnu Vaprus

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.40	2.75
	2.15	3.3	2.95
	2.18	3.55	3.06
	2.19	3.59	2.98	Watch
	2.12	3.4	2.95
	2.15	3.34	2.99	Watch
	2.16	3.45	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.46)	3.43 ↓ (3.49)	2.93 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kuressaare
42.3%

Draw
26.6%

Pärnu Vaprus
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

26.2%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

25.5%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kuressaare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kuressaare's performance.

Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pärnu Vaprus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kuressaare than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Nomm K. (C) 23. Saar R. 36. Piil R. 21. Lukka M. 68. Vahermagi J. 5. Sinilaid S. 28. Lukas R. 77. Demidov E. 8. Andreas D. 11. Jurisoo T. 13. Visse A.	16. Nomm O. (C) 5. Aer S. 43. Seppik M. 28. Lipp M. 24. Villota M. 17. Kapper S. 20. Valja H. 15. Aloe K. 8. Pajo T. 42. Limberg M. 10. Viidas S.
Substitutes
10. Kivi A. 14. Kobin J. 25. Lonks J. 27. Prunn S. 22. Ristna S. (G) 17. Roivassepp G. 9. Svedovski A. 80. Tarkmeel R. 70. Vahermagi J.	11. Kauber K. 66. Nomm U. 14. Orm R. 9. Poder J. 12. Ristimets M. (G) 26. Vahemets O. 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V. 4. Villota M.
Coaches
Post S.	Prins I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Kapper S. ⚽, Viidas S. (A),
41', Limberg M. 🟨,
41', Lukka M. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Demidov E. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Viidas S. ↓, Poder J. ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Visse A. (Penalty Awarded),
52', Demidov E. 🟨,
64', Visse A. ↓, Kivi A. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Limberg M. ⚽, Valja H. (A),
81', Demidov E. ↓, Svedovski A. ↑,
81', Andreas D. ↓, Tarkmeel R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kuressaare won 2.

Kuressaare has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pärnu Vaprus has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Kuressaare might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kuressaare won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:35. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kuressaare won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39:57	-18	34
8	Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31:49	-18	29

Last Results with these Odds

Kuressaare - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.13%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Kuressaare
Estonian Meistriliiga
22.08.26	Tammeka - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Kuressaare	2:3 ✺
07.08.26	Kuressaare - Harju JK Laagri	3:2 ✺
02.08.26	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
19.07.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26 LWWLT
- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
23.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
02.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Levadia Tallinn	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
11.07.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Tammeka	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
26.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	1:0
21.04.26	Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus	0:1
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	9:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.10.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	0:1
20.07.25	Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus	2:1
01.06.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	2:1
18.04.25	Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus	1:0

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