Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 34

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Parnu Rannastaadion (Parnu) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jakobson J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Estonia	18:00	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Pärnu Vaprus		Kuressaare

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	2.70
	2.25	3.3	2.8
	2.35	3.51	2.9
	2.34	3.38	2.89	Watch
	2.3	3.15	2.8
	2.28	3.18	2.84	Watch
	2.28	3.45	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.38)	3.32 ↓ (3.69)	2.82 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu Vaprus
39.9%

Draw
27.6%

Kuressaare
32.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39%

25.2%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

24.9%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu Vaprus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Kuressaare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kuressaare than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Pärnu Vaprus will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Kuressaare will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Nomm O. (G) 15. Aloe K. 17. Kapper S. 42. Limberg M. 28. Lipp M. 8. Pajo T. 90. Sild J. 20. Valja H. 10. Viidas S. 4. Villota M. (C) 24. Villota M.	31. Nomm K. (C) 8. Andreas D. 77. Demidov E. 11. Jurisoo T. 10. Kivi A. 28. Lukas R. 21. Lukka M. 36. Piil R. 17. Roivassepp G. 23. Saar R. 7. Talu R.
Substitutes
5. Aer S. 64. Allas J. 11. Kauber K. 19. Korre A. 66. Nomm U. 14. Orm R. 9. Poder J. 12. Ristimets M. (G) 43. Seppik M. 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V.	14. Kobin J. 3. Leedo K. 37. Leivategija M. 25. Lonks J. 58. Medvedev A. 27. Prunn S. 22. Ristna S. (G) 5. Sinilaid S. 9. Svedovski A. 80. Tarkmeel R. 13. Visse A.
Coaches
Prins I.	Post S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Limberg M. ⚽, Pajo T. (A),
42', Valja H. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Lukka M. 🟨,
56', Talu R. ↓, Svedovski A. ↑,
57', Lukas R. 🟨,
66', Roivassepp G. ↓, Prunn S. ↑,
66', Kivi A. ↓, Visse A. ↑,
75', 🟨,
78', Piil R. 🟥,
80', Lukas R. ↓, Kobin J. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Jurisoo T. ⚽,
87', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 3.

Recent results have been tough for Pärnu Vaprus (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Kuressaare has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kuressaare may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Pärnu Vaprus has recorded 9 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 34:24 (averaging 1.7:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pärnu Vaprus against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 22:11 goals (averaging 2.4:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Parnu JK Vaprus	34	10	7	17	46:68	-22	37
9	Kuressaare	34	10	6	18	35:53	-18	36

Last Results with these Odds

Pärnu Vaprus - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
23.10.26	Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus	4:2 ✺
18.10.26	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Flora Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTTL
- FC Kuressaare
Estonian Meistriliiga
24.10.26	Kuressaare - Paide LM	0:1 ✺
18.10.26	Kuressaare - Levadia Tallinn	0:2 ✺
14.10.26	Narva Trans - Kuressaare	0:1 ✺
11.10.26	Kuressaare - Flora Tallinn	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Harju JK Laagri - Kuressaare	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
29.08.26	Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus	2:2
26.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	1:0
21.04.26	Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus	0:1
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	9:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.10.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	0:1
20.07.25	Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus	2:1
01.06.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	2:1

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