Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 21

Date: 2 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide)

Referee: Koppel K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Paide LM		Kuressaare

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.90	4.40
	1.53	4.00	5.10
	1.61	4.12	5.09
	1.63	4.04	4.78	Watch
	1.59	4.05	4.90
	1.54	3.90	5.16	Watch
	1.60	3.95	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.41)	3.99 ↓ (4.7)	4.85 ↓ (5.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
58.1%

Draw
23%

Kuressaare
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

19.5%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.7%

18.7%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paide LM's form might have worsened.

Kuressaare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paide LM, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kuressaare than the current prediction. (-4%)

Paide LM - Kuressaare Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Meerits M. (G) 15. Ojamaa H. 4. Andrade 3. Victor Hugo 2. Lilander M. 28. Hoim O. 14. Jobarteh M. 21. Smirnov R. 8. Ojamaa H. (C) 17. Cham P. A. 20. Piht K.	31. Nomm K. (C) 23. Saar R. 36. Piil R. 21. Lukka M. 68. Vahermagi J. 5. Sinilaid S. 8. Andreas D. 17. Roivassepp G. 77. Demidov E. 11. Jurisoo T. 13. Visse A.
Substitutes
9. Anier H. 30. Badamosi A. 27. Baranov N. 99. Jarju E. (G) 37. Kanne K. 77. Luts D. 19. Luts S. 10. Miller M. 11. Sohna M. P. 16. Surogin A. 7. Tur E.	44. Joost O. 10. Kivi A. 37. Leivategija M. 25. Lonks J. 28. Lukas R. 27. Prunn S. 22. Ristna S. (G) 7. Talu R. 70. Vahermagi J.
Coaches
Kink T.	Post S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Roivassepp G. ↓, Talu R. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hoim O. ↓, Miller M. ↑,
46', Lilander M. ↓, Tur E. ↑,
46', Jobarteh M. ↓, Luts D. ↑,
60', Andreas D. 🟨,
61', Victor Hugo ↓, Baranov N. ↑,
72', Sinilaid S. ↓, Lukas R. ↑,
72', Visse A. ↓, Kivi A. ↑,
72', Piht K. ↓, Sohna M. P. ↑,
82', Andreas D. ↓, Leivategija M. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Sohna M. P. ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paide won 3.

Recent performances by Paide have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kuressaare is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Paide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Paide is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Paide won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 40:18. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Paide won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:9. (average 1.9:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
8	Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31:49	-18	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Zira - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
23.07.26	Paide LM - Zira	1:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
19.07.26	Harju JK Laagri - Paide LM	5:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Paide LM - Hegelmann Litauen	3:0 ✺
09.07.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28 TWLWT
- FC Kuressaare
Estonian Meistriliiga
19.07.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju	0:0 ✺
11.07.26	Nõmme United - Kuressaare	3:2 ✺
02.07.26	Kuressaare - Flora Tallinn	0:3 ✺
26.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	Kuressaare - Narva Trans	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
31.05.26	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:1
03.04.26	Kuressaare - Paide LM	0:1
04.10.25	Kuressaare - Paide LM	1:1
16.08.25	Paide LM - Kuressaare	5:1
Estonian Cup
13.08.25	Kuressaare - Paide LM	1:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.05.25	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:1
02.03.25	Kuressaare - Paide LM	1:2

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