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Current Win Probability
Pärnu Vaprus 15.2%
Draw 21%
Paide LM 63.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
18.6%
25.1%
56.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
18%
24.2%
58.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
Paide LM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paide LM's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paide LM, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +1 - Pärnu Vaprus (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pärnu Vaprus (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
16. Nomm O. (C) 5. Aer S. 64. Allas J. 15. Aloe K. 17. Kapper S. 47. Kolvart S. 22. Lepik M. 9. Poder J. 90. Sild J. 20. Valja H. 10. Viidas S.
99. Jarju E. (G) 4. Andrade 9. Anier H. 27. Baranov N. 2. Lilander M. 77. Luts D. 10. Miller M. 24. Nigula R. 8. Ojamaa H. (C) 21. Smirnov R. 11. Sohna M. P.
Substitutes
81. Dolgov E. 11. Kauber K. 19. Korre A. 42. Limberg M. 14. Orm R. 3. Rand K. 12. Ristimets M. (G) 86. Roosson R. 43. Seppik M. 7. Vallik V. 4. Villota M.
30. Badamosi A. 14. Jobarteh M. 5. Juhkam G. 37. Kanne K. 19. Luts S. 12. Meerits M. (G) 15. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 16. Surogin A. 7. Tur E. 3. Victor Hugo
Coaches
Prins I.
Vassiljev V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Ojamaa H. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Poder J. ↓, Limberg M. ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Sohna M. P. ⚽, Anier H. (A),
59', 0 - 2, Smirnov R. ⚽,
62', 1 - 2, Viidas S. ⚽,
64', Valja H. 🟨,
73', Anier H. ↓, Piht K. ↑,
73', Baranov N. ↓, Victor Hugo ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Valja H. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Nigula R. 🟨,
83', 3 - 2, Viidas S. ⚽,
85', Ojamaa H. 🟨,
86', 🟨,
87', Viidas S. ↓, Vallik V. ↑,
87', Nigula R. ↓, Jobarteh M. ↑,
87', Luts D. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 1.
Pärnu Vaprus has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Paide is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Pärnu Vaprus may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Paide has had a series of home games.
In this match, Paide is the clear favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 17:40. (average 0.9:2).
Including home matches between the teams, Pärnu Vaprus won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.9:1.8).
Estonia
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Nomm O. (C) 
Jarju E. (G) 
Andrade 
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