Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 20

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Narva Kalev-Fama staadion (Narva)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Narva Trans		Pärnu Vaprus

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3.30	2.55
	2.65	3.50	2.33
	2.47	3.50	2.71
	3.01	3.51	2.18	Watch
	2.40	3.40	2.65
	2.38	3.62	2.69	Watch
	2.32	3.40	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.43)	3.46 ↑ (3.4)	2.54 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Narva Trans
36.9%

Draw
26.7%

Pärnu Vaprus
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

26.9%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

26.5%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Narva Trans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Pärnu Vaprus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Narva Trans will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Pärnu Vaprus will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Pareiko D. (G) 48. Awusi W. 47. Baljabkin N. 25. Burjanadze S. 5. Campagna C. 9. Doke J. 19. Elysee (C) 10. Gero A. 4. Ivanyushin A. 17. Skinjov A. 7. Velijev M.	16. Nomm O. (G) 15. Aloe K. 17. Kapper S. 42. Limberg M. 28. Lipp M. 8. Pajo T. 9. Poder J. 43. Seppik M. 90. Sild J. 20. Valja H. 10. Viidas S.
Substitutes
12. Eriks Santos 44. Geveller D. 70. Imeh J. 23. Jegorov A. 29. Kudriashov V. 28. Miranda da Silva K. 2. Shantenkov V. 1. Zahharov M. (G) 22. Zuravljov E.	5. Aer S. 64. Allas J. 11. Kauber K. 66. Nomm U. 14. Orm R. 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V. 24. Villota M.
Coaches
Campana D.	Prins I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Baljabkin N. ⚽, Doke J. (A),
27', 2 - 0, Gero A. ⚽,
38', Seppik M. 🟨,
40', Skinjov A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Poder J. ↓, Villota M. ↑,
59', Elysee ↓, Eriks Santos ↑,
59', Skinjov A. ↓, Zuravljov E. ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Kapper S. ⚽,
65', Velijev M. ↓, Kudriashov V. ↑,
80', Viidas S. ↓, Vallik V. ↑,
80', Kapper S. ↓, Kauber K. ↑,
81', Doke J. ↓, Imeh J. ↑,
90+1', Kauber K. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 1, Imeh J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Narva Trans won 2.

Narva Trans has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Pärnu Vaprus has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pärnu Vaprus may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Pärnu Vaprus will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Narva Trans won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:25. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Narva Trans won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39:57	-18	34
10	Narva	29	5	4	20	22:65	-43	19

Last Results with these Odds

Pärnu Vaprus - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.5%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Narva Trans
Estonian Meistriliiga
10.07.26	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	3:0 ✺
04.07.26	Narva Trans - Levadia Tallinn	1:3 ✺
21.06.26	Tammeka - Narva Trans	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	Kuressaare - Narva Trans	0:0 ✺
13.06.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
11.07.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Tammeka	5:1 ✺
04.07.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
26.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	Tammeka - Pärnu Vaprus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
09.05.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	2:0
21.03.26	Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus	2:1
Club Friendly
15.02.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	0:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.10.25	Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus	1:1
12.07.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	0:0
11.05.25	Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus	4:2
23.04.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	1:2

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