Match Info

J1 League - Round 11

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Sanga Stadium by Kyocera (Kameoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kyoto Sanga		Kashima Antlers

	1	X	2
	4.00	3.60	1.81	Watch
	4.00	3.60	1.85
	3.80	3.50	1.85	Watch
	4.29	3.71	1.90
	3.8	3.65	1.94	Watch
	4.25	3.65	1.86
	4.03	3.60	1.92	Watch
	3.95	3.55	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↑ (3.8)	3.61 ↑ (3.55)	1.88 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kyoto Sanga
23.5%

Draw
26.2%

Kashima Antlers
50.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.2%

25.9%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

25.3%

51.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Kashima Antlers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	6.2%	93.7%

Kyoto Sanga - Kashima Antlers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 - under (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Kashima Antlers will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kashima Antlers will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Halls (G) 40. Ishida Y. 50. Suzuki Y. (C) 15. Nagata K. 44. Sato K. 25. Yoon S. 24. Morooka H. 62. Shichi T. 48. Nakano R. 77. Arai H. 17. Souza Alex	1. Hayakawa T. (G) 23. Tsukui K. 55. Ueda N. (C) 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 7. Ogawa R. 27. Matsumura Y. 6. Misao K. 8. Matheus Bueno 30. Yoshida M. 40. Suzuki Y. 9. Leo Ceara
Substitutes
16. Hiraoka T. 99. Honda F. 6. Joao Pedro 23. Kato T. 11. Marco Tulio 1. Ota G. (G) 5. Tawiah H. 43. Weverton 60. Yamanaka R.	77. Cavric A. 17. Elber 24. Hayashu H. 14. Higuchi Y. 25. Koike R. 5. Sekigawa I. 10. Shibasaki G. 34. Tokuda H. 21. Yamada T. (G)
Coaches
Popovic R.	Oniki T.

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 16th and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 1.

Kyoto has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kashima is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Kashima holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Kyoto: Saito M. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Kashima: Anzai K. (Knee Injury) Higuchi Y. (Leg Injury).

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Kyoto has recorded 1 win, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:9 (averaging 0.8:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kyoto against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:4 goals (averaging 0.5:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Kashima Antlers	10	6	1	3	21:16	5	19
16	Kyoto	10	2	2	6	11:19	-8	8

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashima Antlers: 11.14% Kyoto: 0.71%

Last Results with these Odds

Kyoto Sanga - the odds 3.8 are the expected chance of winning is 24.18%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
17.10.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
13.10.26	Kyoto Sanga - Ratchaburi	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
10.10.26	Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
03.10.26	Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 penalties ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Kyoto Sanga - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLLW
- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
17.10.26	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
13.10.26	Cong An Ha Noi - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
09.10.26	Kashima Antlers - Gamba Osaka	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Kashima Antlers - Ventforet Kofu	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashima Antlers	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
25.10.25	Kyoto Sanga - Kashima Antlers	1:1
06.04.25	Kashima Antlers - Kyoto Sanga	3:4
17.11.24	Kyoto Sanga - Kashima Antlers	0:0
13.04.24	Kashima Antlers - Kyoto Sanga	1:0
01.07.23	Kashima Antlers - Kyoto Sanga	0:0
18.02.23	Kyoto Sanga - Kashima Antlers	0:2
10.09.22	Kyoto Sanga - Kashima Antlers	1:1

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