Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 9

Date: 6 July 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	La Luz		Atletico Fenix Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.8	2.95	1.93
	3.7	3	1.95
	3.81	3.28	2.02
				Watch
	4	2.9	2
	3.72	3.08	1.98
	2.52	2.98	2.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (2.5)	3.03 ↑ (3)	2.09 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
25.6%

Draw
30.4%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

30.4%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

31.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that La Luz's form might have worsened.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atletico Fenix Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for La Luz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atletico Fenix Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

La Luz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fenix will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenix (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Sequeira H. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Ribas S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, Dogliotti L. ⚽,
50', 2 - 2, Ribas S. ⚽,
69', Fernandez L. 🟥,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 5).

La Luz is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fenix is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fenix may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, La Luz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, La Luz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.06.25	Rampla Juniors - La Luz	4:0 ✺
24.06.25	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	Central Español - La Luz	0:0 ✺
07.06.25	La Luz - Tacuarembó	1:2 ✺
04.06.25	Rentistas - La Luz	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTTLL
- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
29.06.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	3:2 ✺
22.06.25	Colón Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:3 ✺
15.06.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
07.06.25	Oriental de La Paz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
04.06.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Uruguay Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.04.25	La Luz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.12.23	La Luz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:2
14.05.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - La Luz	0:2
Uruguay Copa
31.08.22	La Luz - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:1

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