Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 19

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	La Luz		Atenas de San Carlos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.50	2.95	2.60
	2.52	2.92	2.62
	2.66	2.98	2.77
	2.61	3.08	2.76	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.65
	2.51	2.88	2.66
	2.55	2.95	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.38)	2.95 (2.95)	2.67 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
35.5%

Draw
30.6%

Atenas de San Carlos
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

30.4%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

29.6%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Atenas de San Carlos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atenas de San Carlos than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 12th and 1st in the Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Luz won 2.

La Luz is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Atenas has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Atenas may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Atenas holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, La Luz has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 11:11 (averaging 1.2:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for La Luz against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:3 goals (averaging 1:0.8 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atenas	21	12	4	5	30:18	12	40
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27

Last Results with these Odds

Atenas de San Carlos - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 31.99%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
12.09.26	Paysandú - La Luz	0:1 ✺
04.09.26	La Luz - Huracán Paso de la Arena	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
23.08.26	La Luz - Oriental de La Paz	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Colón Montevideo - La Luz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLTLL
- Atenas de San Carlos
Uruguayan Segunda Division
13.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - River Plate Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
02.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
29.08.26	Paysandú - Atenas de San Carlos	2:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Danubio - Atenas de San Carlos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
14.06.26	Atenas de San Carlos - La Luz	4:0
04.04.26	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	2:1
13.09.25	Atenas de San Carlos - La Luz	2:3
24.06.25	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	1:1
02.11.24	Atenas de San Carlos - La Luz	1:1
14.07.24	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	1:1
11.09.22	Atenas de San Carlos - La Luz	1:2

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