Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 19

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	La Luz		Central Español

	1	X	2
	2.78	2.58	2.78
	3.02	2.88	2.92
	3.09	2.46	2.90	Watch
	2.95	2.62	2.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↓ (3.15)	2.64 ↓ (3.28)	2.87 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
31.7%

Draw
35.6%

Central Español
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

27.7%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

27.4%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Central Español has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Central Español might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Español than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Central Español could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

La Luz - Central Español Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. La Luz will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Central Español will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. La Luz (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', Suarez N. 🟥,
37', 0 - 1, Tarragona R. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
64', 0 - 2, ⚽,
87', 0 - 3, ⚽,
90+1', 0 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

La Luz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Central Español is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, La Luz won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, La Luz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

La Luz - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 28.8%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
30.08.25	Tacuarembó - La Luz	1:1 ✺
26.08.25	La Luz - Rentistas	2:0 ✺
20.08.25	Artigas - La Luz	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Cerrito - La Luz	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	La Luz - Colón Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWTLL
- Central Español
Uruguayan Segunda Division
31.08.25	Cerrito - Central Español	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Colón Montevideo - Central Español	0:0 ✺
19.08.25	Central Español - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
15.08.25	Oriental de La Paz - Central Español	2:3 ✺
11.08.25	Central Español - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
15.06.25	Central Español - La Luz	0:0
24.07.22	La Luz - Central Español	0:0
30.04.22	Central Español - La Luz	3:2

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