Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 1

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	La Luz		Colón Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.52	2.92	2.68
	2.53	3.06	2.71
	2.63	3.03	2.78	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.63
	2.51	2.94	2.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (3.03)	2.95 ↓ (3.04)	2.69 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
35.5%

Draw
30.8%

Colón Montevideo
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

30.5%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

30.5%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Colón Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Colón Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colón Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colón Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

La Luz - Colón Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Luz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 1:9. (average 0.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, La Luz won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Colon	21	8	6	7	20:23	-3	30
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27

Last Results with these Odds

La Luz - the odds 3.03 are the expected chance of winning is 30.63%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
18.04.26	Cerrito - La Luz	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	2:1 ✺
27.03.26	La Luz - Huracán Paso de la Arena	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLWTT
- Colón Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
18.04.26	Miramar Misiones - Colón Montevideo	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Colón Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	4:2 ✺
04.04.26	Colón Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Colón Montevideo - Rentistas	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Oriental de La Paz - Colón Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
10.08.25	La Luz - Colón Montevideo	0:1
17.05.25	Colón Montevideo - La Luz	1:0
13.04.25	Colón Montevideo - La Luz	1:1
16.11.24	Colón Montevideo - La Luz	5:0
27.07.24	La Luz - Colón Montevideo	0:1

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