Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 21

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	La Luz		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	2.85	2.62
	2.72	3	2.62
	2.69	3.06	2.69	Watch
	2.65	2.85	2.55
	2.63	3.4	2.65
	2.55	2.9	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 (2.63)	3.01 ↑ (2.95)	2.62 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
34.7%

Draw
30.4%

River Plate Montevideo
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

30.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

31.1%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

La Luz - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, ⚽,
27', 0 - 2, ⚽,
39', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 2 - 2, ⚽,
60', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 12th and 5th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

La Luz may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, La Luz has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 0.5:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for La Luz against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:2 goals.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27

Last Results with these Odds

La Luz - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 33.97%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.74%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.09.26	Cerrito - La Luz	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Paysandú - La Luz	0:1 ✺
04.09.26	La Luz - Huracán Paso de la Arena	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWLT
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.09.26	River Plate Montevideo - Colón Montevideo	3:0 ✺
20.09.26	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Albion Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
13.09.26	River Plate Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - River Plate Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	0:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.11.23	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	1:0
16.07.23	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	0:0
22.04.23	La Luz - River Plate Montevideo	2:2

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